Morning Update – March 19, 2020

Fundamentals that I’m seeing aren’t showing any changes yet. Not that I can notice. I’m not paying tons of money for very detailed info, but it’s good enough for me to speculate.

Valor Analytics made a comment on Twitter yesterday. I can’t remember the wording exactly, but it along these lines: “Natgas will be bullish at $1.5 with Oil in the 20s”.

This one statement says it all. I still fully expect demand destruction to play in, and I think the first shock of that idea hit the market yesterday and I didn’t capitalize on the move. UNG got almost to $12. I mentioned $1.58 for prompt, which I’m showing around $12. So my numbers are off a little, and had I set a limit to buy at $12.05, I might not had gotten in. None the less, I’m adjusting my strategy.

I still believe Oil and Gas are both going to seek out new lows. I can’t say for sure, and I’m already holding some of both UNG and USO. So the change in my strategy sill be to try and add every 50c lower in UNG. I know it sounds like a ridiculous idea, but since I’ve been blessed to still be working. I want to try and catch a little of every move to $1.5. I’m currently 35% in and I’ve decided I’ll dial it up to 75% in at $1.5 gas. I have 40% to play with. That’s roughly $400 in my example account. Current prompt pricing is $1.65, but I’m going to start referencing NGK20 at $1.70 right now.

So…. If I space evenly my funds to $1.50 from $1.70, near

$1.70 = $13 UNG

$1.50 = $11.50 UNG

I’ll use the following method

Layering method if Gas falls toward $1.5 NGK20

I’m showing $400 to be invested every 1% lower in price of UNG, and I’ll invest roughly 7% each layer. This sheet is not highly accurate since 7% is not exactly 2 shares. Either way, this sheet will keep me from spending too much, too soon.

wow, I just saw a headline, flights from China will resume to London? This virus that has all but been deemed the end of the world, and London is just getting started with dealing with it. Then China is going to let their people head on over to London. Round 1 hasn’t even started for most countries; this just gives support to the idea China let this thing out intentionally to cull the herd and they are leading them to slaughter by opening travel outside of their own country again. I’m not a doomsday prepper, but I look at the way governments are prepping for this virus and think that is a bad move to let people enter or leave any country right now.

so my guideline above is good enough to get me started with UNG. I’m not going to get too excited about USO right now. My average is $5.55 and If it goes up, great, if it goes down substantially again, I’ll buy a couple more shares. I really don’t see oil dipping $1 below $20. That’ is just insane. People will find a way to store oil in their back yards if prices stay down. I’ll look into physical contracts for delivery. At this point it would cost more for the application and requirements to store it than the oil itself. Even at $20/bbl. I’d be happy to drive an old diesel truck for the next 20 years if I could store $20 oil in my backyard right now.

Again, I’m going to set some limit purchase…. hmmm I have a pre-market order to buy UNG right now at $12.98 with more than 100 shares in my other account and it’s not going through…. hmm, just bought 2 shares in Webull at $13, guess that gets me started on my layering. I’m going to wait a little to see how the market “wakes up”.

The sheet above, again, is just a guideline. I may place some limits to buy each layer as the sheet says, but if I have time to watch, I’ll see if some of these layers get in at a better deal that what the sheet says. If the price is falling, there is no reason to just bid into UNG at a layer just based on that sheet. I still want to get the best deal possible, I just don’t want to miss out like yesterday. You could argue I should just give myself a little more room with each layer and wait for a better deal. Then I would argue that I was going to do that yesterday and I missed out. Do you like how I am torn on this approach. I think something like this is more appropriate.

Start buying at $13, and layer in with each 3% drop in price. Invest 15% with each layer.

Here I”m letting the price move a little more and investing more with each layer. This is more what i wish to do. If I miss buying 1 more layer, I’ll live with that.

I bought 2 shares at $13. I’m going to leave it at that and set a limit to buy UNG at $12.61 with 5 shares, and be patient on the rest. If I get busy at work and the market is falling, I may place the next layer to buy a little lower that $12.23 just to see if it will take lower and check as soon as possible.

Schwab still showing my other order “pending cancel” It must be their turn to have trouble with the traffic to through their platforms now.

Holy shitzleberries, $12.61 just took. I’m going to publish this now, and I’m going to be patient on the next few layers.

You’ve been getting the play-by-play, I need to slow down. I’m still planning to follow my last posted “trade schedule” above. Remember, all it does is keep me from buying too soon. I can always wait longer, which is what I’m doing now.

I’m currently 44% in with an average of $13.89 in UNG. I’ll go ahead and set 10% to buy at $12. This volatile period is chaotic and emotional. But being just that, it will lead to wild swings in both directions that should be easy to capitalize on with smaller amounts invested than usual. For now, I’m only going to add the 10% at $12 and wait to see what else happens. The sheet says 15% on it, but that is based on $400 in the account, so ignore that. Wow, I have a lot work to do to prepare this site to be an example to others.

Ok, be patient; don’t spend too much money (especially that which you can’t afford to lose right now); take care of yourselves and your families; be patient again. And stay away from SPXL still. Good Luck

Oldinvestor

Morning Update March 16, 2020

Though still trending down, production is showing to be up a little to start the week. Coronavirus is taking its toll on the market again. TVIX showing a premarket high around $550ish. My example account is back in the red by almost 1%. But it feels good to be at 30% long, in UNG and waiting for another bargain.

I’ve lost access to my Tradingview account from work, it is a sad time for me. Everything is down right now. S&P, Oil, Gas, Silver/Gold. All down by hysterical numbers. I would say start buying SPXL, but it still feels too soon. Maybe when this…. let’s see here….

Daily new cases of Coronavirus world wide found at WorldoMeters.info

Maybe when this starts declining. As it seems right now. Italy is doing their best to keep everyone inside, and they are still growing. The above chart and most other data on daily updates can be found here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

Here is daily deaths. This is probably the more important chart. I think this one is a bit exaggerated because some data that may not have been reported over the weekend. It is possible this is because the virus is finally becoming a real problem in many more countries. The website has a table that has new cases and deaths, by country here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ .

Daily death rate of Coronavirus world wide found at WorldoMeters.info

I’m really only seeing the top 7 or so countries with a substantial number of deaths or even new cases in the 100s. I have heard a lot, and asked one healthcare professional about the tests. Unlike the flu or Streptocol something or other (strep throat), there hasn’t been a lot of quick tests made for the coronavirus yet. So most testing that I know of is being sent to a major lab in each state. This means a ton of people who even exhibit symptoms are not being tested. I think it is clear these types of quick tests are being developed and distributed, but it takes longer than a week to develop, test, adjust for new strains, manufacture, and deliver this type of test.

Because of these setbacks, and inability to test, the spread has got to be far greater than what has been recorded.

I guess my point is, as long as we aren’t testing everyone, the number of undetected cases will continue to rise. Don’t forget, humans get complacent quickly; therefore, the number of deaths will continue to rise and every one of those bodies will be tested. This will continue to skew the stats of a crazy high death rate and continue to freak people out.

Anyway, back to gas. The impact of the market mentality is dragging everything down.

As stated above, I’m still perched at closer to 29% long in UNG with an average of $14.34. I’m itching to buy. NGK20 contract near $1.82, which is pretty awesome. Also there is support around this area over the last week. I think I’ll buy with 5%-6% of funds. I am also holding 1 share of USO from $7.03, which is 0.7% of my account.

I’m adding to my UNG position at $13.89, which puts me at 35.5% in UNG. I’m also buying 1 more share of USO at $6.14, which is now roughly 1.3% of my account.

UNG average = $14.24

USO average = $6.59

Good Luck

Oldinvestor

Morning Update March 13, 2020

First up, I’m reducing the 5% of UNG that I bought yesterday, right now at $14.86. I’m now down to 30% holdings of UNG again. I’m getting this out there, I will post more later. I’ll continue to hold 30% into the weekend unless Natgas pricing shoots above $2

Morning Update March 12, 2020

The WHO… or the CDC? declared coronavirus a pandemic yesterday. Everything is down, No surprise Natgas is down as well. Even Silver is down? Silver! I guess the world is not really in full panic mode just yet; Silver is down. I did a quick search on that, and high demand countries are been hit and high producing countries have not been hit by coronavirus yet. So maybe this is your golden opportunity to still get in Silver. Maybe not. I started buying a little SLV, and of course it’s down 15 cents. Not in this account, but in my 401k.

UNG! I reduced just in time! Down to 30% holdings in UNG, I saw green yesterday! I’m super excited. Even though I’m in the red a little again, I’m way ahead of the S&P from where I started blogging about my Natgas adventures!

P/L% of my example account (from inception) vs S&P 500

Yesterday was great. It’s such a good feeling to be right about this market, if only short lived.

Production is holding. It’s not an easy task to gauge whether there is an over or under supply of gas. At the moment, I would like to think the Supply/Demand balance is right on the fence. One hell of a time for it to be there too. That just gives the coronavirus drama more sway over the market. I really feel it’s important to be patient today, the market has shown it’s just not ready to break out. Oil did excite the bulls; a much needed mental boost. As I preached in the morning update yesterday, production will not simply stop because oil prices fall. As for gas fundamentals, everything is still about the same. Production is holding, and is still on a slight decline. That decline thought, is due to declining rig counts all of 2019. After looking at the oil figures yesterday, I’m a bit surprised oil hasn’t already started to decline from oil rig counts dropping as well in 2019.

I am still glad I adjusted my strategy to be more conservative.

NG1 on daily chart at Tradingview.com

I do want to point out how volatility has increased. I built this little script a while back that puts the candles side by side to compare size. I posted a newer version of this one and there are some other scripts in my profile at Tradingview.

https://www.tradingview.com/u/oldinvestor/

I haven’t really pushed Tradingview much. I think they do an exceptional job with charting, and their scripting capabilities. I wish I could automate trades with them. There is actually a link to refer a friend. Tradingview is free to use on many levels. If you decide to sign up for a paid subscription, I get some kind of credit if you sign up through this link.

https://www.tradingview.com/gopro/?share_your_love=oldinvestor

I’m not here to promote Tradingview, I just like their service.

So I’m 30% in UNG now. The price didn’t quite make it to $15.5 yesterday, but you should know by now that I’m going to trade early if I’m watching the market. This is a prime example of why I’m paranoid. I had a target of $15.5 and the price only made it to $15.47, then turned and dropped. I’m tempted to buy a little since gas prices have fallen 20 cents from where I reduced. I’ve been light on this the whole time, and I’ve spread out my layers very far apart. It couldn’t hurt to tighten things up a bit. I’m going to go ahead with a little over 5% here at $13.85. This will put me at 35% in UNG now with a new average of $14.45

I’ll reduce the 5% I just added if the price gets back over $15 today. I am also placing an order to buy 5% more at $13.02. I’m ok with walking into more UNG with these small amounts at random price points. I like $13 because it is close to the lows and the market is a little more bull minded right now, but I am not interested in taking on a heavier trade unless we see fresh lows. If UNG trades outside this range today, watch for updates on Twitter. Be careful in the weeks ahead, and don’t buy SPXL yet, bla… Good Luck

Oldinvestor

Morning Update Mach 11, 2020

I admit I’ve pushed natgas to the side a bit too far aside to focus on a bad VIX trade. I was too early. Now is probably a fair point of entry, but could still be much too soon if panic begins in the US. Once the panic is huge in the US and “blood is on the streets” so the saying goes, that is when you want to short TVIX. Rather, I’ve decided I think I should just go long on SPXL. I’ve traded UGAZ for over 4 years now and managed the decay quite well; SPXL is nowhere near the decay of UGAZ.

I’m purchasing 1 share of USO! at $7.03. That is roughly 0.7% of my account. This is not enough to disrupt my gas trading in the account, but I will be keeping track of the trade here as well. I will simply add if oil prices continue to fall. Looking at oil for 10 mins, if USO drops to $6.50, I’ll add 2 more shares. At $6, I’ll add 4 shares and so on. Oil can only go so far down before all global producers/exporters are really freaking out. Most of them are already.

Back to Gas, I’m going to read over the last free article by HFIR: Natural Gas Producers Will Receive The Biggest Benefit From The Latest Oil Market Craze

click the title to go to the article if you like. I’ll review this article and point out a few things later as soon as I get the chance. The biggest factor that should be pointed out now is production is falling, and that is key. Prices have tested bottom twice, held above $1.6. The gas market could test bottom again, but with production on it’s way down I believe there is little concern of sub $1.5. I mean UGAZ at that point sounds great… The boost from Oil is substantial, but if you can find your way to EIA website, look at 2014 to 2016 to see how long it took for oil production to stop rising after rig counts crashed. I will look this up later today. Gas production is already falling without the help of oil crashing, oil production will not just stop. Oil will not give gas a boost just yet physically, but gas will certainly be more bullish mentally because of oil crashing.

OK, as promised… Rig counts

Baker Hughes US Crude Oil Rig Count by TradingEconomics.com

With a quick search for “oil rig count chart”, this was the second match. Ycharts was the first, but they wanted me to sign up to look at a 10Y chart. bla… I remember from Christmas 2014 to somewhere early 2015, rig counts falling like crazy. I had gotten out of the industry in 2013, looks like I chose a good time to leave. anyway, lets compare this to Oil production.

Increase/decrease in US Oil production from Jan 2014 to June 2018 at EIA.gov STEO data browser

Zooming in on Rig count below. You see Rigs start falling off quick by the start of 2015 and drastically fall until around August 2015. Above shows Oil production maxed out in April of 2015, at least 4 months into rig counts falling. Now lets look at pricing as well!

Baker Hughes US Oil rig count from Jan 2014 to March 2017
US Crude Oil production vs WTI Spot pricing at EIA.gov

Now you see WTI spot pricing had fallen from over $100/bbl to around $50/bbl yet production continues higher.

My point is this, oil production will only slow following a cut back in drilling, by months. Taking 600 oil rigs offline, production still increased output. Operators (producing oil companies), again have to pay the bills. To do this, they must keep producing, while cutting back on drilling costs of new wells. Cash flow here on a grand scale seems pretty easy to me.

Today is different in a few clear ways to me. Permian wasn’t a consideration in 2014/15/16. Shale well efficiency has increased dramatically, 1600 drilling may never be in operation all at once ever again in the US.

Baker Hughes US Oil Rig count from Jan 2018 to March 2020 at TradingEconomics.com
US Crude Oil Production from Feb 2018 to Jan 2020 at EIA.gov

Clearly there is a repeat in this pattern of oil production trailing a drilling rig count decline by months. Of course, we see drilling rigs being reduced all of 2019, so production should have already slowed? Well there is always DUCs? maybe…. I’m really not sure, because I’ve just now dove into all this in the last 45 mins.

If you got to https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/ , along the right side is a DUC supplement PDF. In that PDF is a total DUC count. I’ll include oil and gas since they are there together. All regions have been on the decline and Appalachia has been on the decline for DUCs since before it was popular to increase DUCs, if that makes sense.

Back to my point. Just because drilling rig counts are falling, doesn’t mean production will fall. There is a lot of money tied up in DUCs, and they must be completed and brought online at some point. I’m sure most, if not all State have laws that say a well cannot sit dormant but for so long, it must be completed and produced, or plugged and abandoned. This would be in years, but many of these wells have already been setting for years; which may be why Appalachia has been completing wells faster than they have been drilling for some time. That and cash flow is more better when you flow production from a well, as opposed to letting it set there.

ok, I should stop here. I’ve shown that oil production will most likely not slow down immediately. I did not include pricing into that last EIA chart, but it’s been drifting around $60/bbl, which is apparently was the new norm, until now… Oil prices will more be affected by global dramatization between Saudi Arabia and Russia. That’s why I hate following oil. It can flip 20% over the weekend because two countries set it up for disaster. Nothing to do with real fundamentals. Fundamentals will still win out eventually; with gas, fundamentals show through in the price sooner and more often

I didn’t really read the HFI article, and now i don’t have time… Maybe tomorrow. I don’t even have time to read back over this and correct any errors. sorry about that.

This is from earlier and it’s still true: For now I’m still 50% in UNG and would like to see gas get to $2 for another reduction down to 30% holdings. This would be near $15.5 UNG. I’m not so confident the price will move on to $2 this week, and I’m certainly in no rush to add to my position right now unless UNG falls back to $13. Good Luck

Oldinvestor