Sunday Note – Weekly Candle comparison – March – Yoy

I’m always trying to find some different way to look at the chart. I found this and not sure if it worth sharing, but here it is. For the month of March each year… Weekly candle heights compared, from low to high and open to close. I don’t have a lot to say, as far as analysis goes, just that the market appears to be tightening the last two years. I would argue right now that the market is waiting for a fundamental reason to move harder. I built the study used at Tradingview.com; I will share them so everyone can play. As always, I’ll share the code as it is not worth keeping a secret.

I’ve published the study on Tradingview here

I’ve published the script used in the study here.

NG1 Weekly comparison of Open/Close and High/Low for March YoY

Random data – Storage vs TDD – Jan 21, 2020

Difference in storage vs 5 yr average storage – weekly provided by RonH

The above is the difference between storage and 5 yr average storage. In 2015 existed a deficit in comparison to the 5 year average. During 2015, the storage deficit turns into a surplus in 2015/2016. A similar occurrence is happening now in 2019/2020.

Another way to look at this is to compare each build/draw to the each week of the 5 year average. This, to me, shows the consistency in build/draw of storage vs the average.

Weekly build/draw difference vs 5 year average – provided by RohH

HDD during 2015/2016 vs Long Term HDD averages provided by RonH
TDD during 2019/2020 vs Long Term TDD averages provided by RonH

I didn’t see TDD for 2015/16, so I am looking at HDD only. The significant swings in HDD and TDD can be see in storage around the same weeks for each year. I’m looking at this to get a comparison to the 2015/2016 plunge in pricing and compare that to storage. The dynamics of storage are what create swings in the market. The anticipation of over/under supply. Weather is the largest contributor to swings in demand, and swings in storage. Thanks to the colder than normal weather in Nov/Dec of 2019, storage kept fro building as fast as Dec of 2015.

It is impressive to me how similar a path pricing and storage is on track to compete with 2016. Prices could very well travel to $1.61 again as in 2016. I remember getting into trading ETFs around the week that NG prices bottomed out in 2016. At that time, I barely had an understanding of this market and what it was capable of. That being said, I can’t say right now feels any different for the better or worse. I know not to try and call bottom, and I know to be happy I’m not holding UGAZ, barf….

My “Ultimate Guide” to shorting UGAZ: Part 2a: How to Protect – by Layering

This part should go fairly quick and I should not talk in circles this time. I’m going to refer back to the same timeline I’ve been using, Dec 21, 2017 to Jan 3, 2020. I want to cover every detail that I can. For one thing, I still don’t know myself how all this will unfold completely. I have theories in my head that need to be tested.

For this part I will layer into the position vs just taking on a full short position.

UGAZ chart on Daily leading up to Dec 21, 2017, using Tradingview.com

We know Dec 21 was a significant bottom for UGAZ because we can see on the chart. If I just started with the idea of shorting UGAZ on that day, in 2017, would I or should I have taken a max short position of 18% of my account value all at once? Fundamentals have the answer. I’d like to compare that moment, in 2017, to right now.

UGAZ Feb 2019 to Jan 2020 on daily chart at Tradingview.com

After a long run down , and the price is closer to a bottom than a top, should I short UGAZ with 18% of the funds in my account? The answer to this is going to be far different for everyone. I could max out at 18% and just chance it. I could go long with something else to protect it, which I’ll get to next. For now I want to stick with “Layering-in”. I want to compare a simple plan for layering into a position with the Short-and-Hold example.

As for my answer; I would not, in any way take on a UGAZ short right now with 18% of my funds without a spike in the price. Fundamentally, a small short here is worthy of attention, but not 18%. Not yet. On to the data.

In the chart below, I’m zooming in to the beginning of the range I’ve been discussing. Early on there is a substantial move upward in UGAZ. I want to use this to show how much difference layering into the position can make. So just off the top of my head I chose to plot these lines roughly every 10% move higher. I started Dec 21st with 2 shares, and added 2 shares with each close that was roughly 10% higher than the previous. There is a gap from $600/share to $700/share, so I added a couple of layers close together there.

UGAZ from mid Dec, 2017 to late Jan, 2017
UGAZ short and hold – Layering into the position

I changed a few layers just to see how the chart would turn out, mostly sticking to the UGAZ layers above. I want to point out here the maximum Funds needed to cover the UGAZ short is around $10,000 less than originally. Also the pre-interest gain made on Jan 3, 2020 is $10786, with a maximum of 16 shares shorted. I only layered into the first move backward to show how much difference the results can be with a fairly small change in how UGAZ is shorted.

UGAZ short layers in Excel document

Above is a screenshot of the data sheet of my spreadsheet. You can make a copy or download the spreadsheet and manipulate the sheet if you like. The highlighted column is the “number of shares” you want to be holding at that time. You can increase or decrease (with a positive number, the sheet assumes this is a short position), the sheet will adjust the average of shares held with each increased short, and will hold onto any gain/loss when the position is reduced. I’m just getting warmed up with my analysis of this. Look forward to more in the following posts.

To read my other posts on this series, go to my Notes page.

Oldinvestor

My “Ultimate Guide” to shorting UGAZ: Part 2. How to Protect

Now that I’ve said too much about the dangers of shorting UGAZ, let us move on to how I plan to protect my account. I talk in circles a lot, get over it; I’m thorough. There are two major dangers to protect against, getting a margin call (not having enough funds to hold on to a short position when it goes backward), and the broker taking the shares back because the owner of them must have them back to sell them. These dangers are equally damaging and can both leave you “holding the bag”…. Am I saying that right?

In this post I’m sharing the data for the example I’ve been working on; Holding short from Dec 21, 2017 to Jan 3, 2020. I’ll get to the Margin dangers in the next couple of posts. I swear I have an outline in my head, it just keeps changing.

UGAZ on Daily Chart from Dec,2017 to Jan, 2020

Something I hadn’t noticed before, this example shows 371 days to go backward, then 371 days to make a profit. As a summary, you needed roughly $53,000 to hold on to a short worth $9944. That is a position worth 18-19% of max pain. After 371 days of survival, the trade goes on to make roughly 86%, or very roughly 13-14% gain on the account after incurring (assumed) interest charges to short for that long a period.

The focus here is: By never exceeding more than 18% of my original account balance on a short position, I could have survived this trade.

First step, plot the UGAZ short. With Tradingview I can load the UGAZ daily chart and export what I have on the screen to a CSV file. I have daily OHLC all ready for me to manipulate and build the first Chart. Yippie.

I found the time to get the first chart generated. And here it is.

UGAZ Short from Dec 21, 2017 to Jan 3, 2020

The image may be difficult to see. Good thing I am sharing the document itself for you to look at the chart and the data yourself. I have shared it here, at google sheets. It will open in a new window and you don’t need a google account to view the document. It is a downloadable Excel file if you want to make a copy and change it up any way you like.

So there you have it. Starting on Dec 21, 2017, immediately heading into a loss, recovery, near catastrophic loss, and finally the road to success. I will continue to use this example from Dec 21, 2017 to Jan 3, 2020 for the next few examples. This example is the best of historical moves to test protecting my account. I will eventually test other moments in UGAZ history. I hope to get the next section posted tomorrow. It should be fairly simple; I plan to manipulate some of the data for this chart to show how easy it can be for me to improve risk management and maintain or even improve profits at the same time. Till next time

Oldinvestor