Morning Update Jan 13, 2020

I’m on vacation so my posts will be short this week. I’m holding 30% of funds in UNG still.

Weather is toying with prices as usual. The 11-15 HDD plot shows significant cold but I don’t see how the weather maps agree with this. It feels as though this is all priced in and more cold will be required to spark further bullish interest.

NG1 on 2 hr chart at Tradingview.com

No matter my weather assumptions, the chart is still looking up. I think I’ll be placing a stop at $16.72 on 1/3 of my UNG position and hold on to the rest. This market has a lot to prove in order to go higher.

That’s it for me. Good luck. If i get time, I’ll post more.

Oldinvestor

Morning Update Jan 10, 2020

My for real job has my busy, I should update this later. For now I’m still holding 50% of my funds in UNG. I’m placing a limit on UNG to sell 20% of my position (10% of funds) at $16.95. Beyond that, be patient.

Morning Update Jan 9, 2020

Going to make this a quick one. I mentioned yesterday weather would have more influence on the market, and I believe it has. NG prices appear to be swaying with the forecast updates. The ECM this morning around 3 am Eastern about as bearish as it gets from one forecast to the next.

NG1 on 2hr chart at Tradingview.com

It appears prices are at a testing point yet again. NG pricing continues to fail in this area. Even with a fall from here, we have had equally terrible fundamentals up to this point and the even cash looking horrible. It begs the question, why didn’t prices already fall to $2. I will add another 10% of UNG on any dip I see below $16.3 today.

So there it is. I added only 10% at $16.3, because I thought prices would fall further. That still stands, I’ve been centering my layers around 20% block of my funds. Then of course I change my mind and get greedy with 10%. I’m doing my best to be patient. This is fairly slow for the Natgas market in winter. I’ll place only 20% of my position (10% of funds) for sale today at $16.95. Don’t forget the EIA report at 10:30am Eastern time. The website automatically refreshes at that time with new data. If there is a drastic drop or rise before the report, I will make a more drastic move, otherwise I will wait until after the EIA report to make any moves. Trades should always be posted to Twitter. This market has been pretty slow to do much of anything, I should not get in any hurry to mess up my account. Good luck

Oldinvestor

Morning Update Jan 8, 2020

My mind is not here, it is in a UGAZ short strategy. Anyway, not a lot has changed fundamentally. The weather predictions is trying to give hope to the idea colder than normal weather is coming, but we’ll see…. Something stands out to me right now is the slow move up.

NG1 on 2 hr chart at Tradingview.com

The chart is moving up at a slower pace than the previous failures to breakout. At the upper left of the screenshot, there is an upward sloping line. The price breaks away from that line and goes up too fast. It is common to see this and see a snap back, such as all the candles that are straight up and come straight back down on the very next candle. Same with the many candles that moves straight down and soon move straight back up. So this upward movement could be a sign of strength. I will remain paranoid, but excited all the same.

The market is still much oversupplied, with production still relatively flat for now and demand doing what it does every year, not quite enough to impress. I believe weather will become increasingly important the next few days. Weather… Important… phsssss. I am for real. The forecast is showing cold, but it’s a tease (11-15 days away). If it sticks, NG prices will continue to rise. However, any drop in HDDs and prices retract the same as they have. I’ll remain long and reduce at my average, now to that.

Yesterday I had a limit order to buy more UNG with 10% of my funds at $16.3. I looked at webull later and the chart showed a bottom of $16.31. Well, the order took at $16.3 and I’m now 50% in UNG with an average of $16.95. I don’t like this because if you were to have the same order in to paper trade, the order would not have filled. It is what it is. I’m still on the same path. I will place an order to reduce at my average. I want to be back to 30% of my funds in UNG. So I am placing a limit order to sell 40% of my UNG position (equal to roughly 20% of my funds) at $16.95. Beyond that, I know I want at least $17.5 to sell any more. It is too soon for me to place a target on selling more. I’m almost always early.

Oldinvestor

Morning Update Jan 7, 2020

Nothing much to report this morning.

DCOT for NG week of Dec 31, 2019 at RonHenergy.com

My favorite topic, managed money position came out yesterday afternoon. Long positions are still building, short positions are mostly holding. There is still great potential for pricing to hang out where it is (because fundamentals are sucking and short positioning can’t drive it down much further. Longs are building instead of reducing, therefore prices are hard pressed to fall further). Weather is not being helpful as usual. The latest forecast took a bearish step in that dance it does, mostly 11-15 days away.

NG1 on 2hr chart at Tradingview.com

As for the chart. It looks like pricing is at a crossroads again. It gives me the feeling the market wants to test 2.08 again. Maybe I’ll get to add to my position today. I’ve considered switching to 5% layers, where I add every 5%, but this usually doesn’t work out all that well. It doesn’t average down my break-even price, and it doesn’t make much if I sell a 5% layer on a quick gain. Best just to be patient.

So I’m still holding 40% of funds in UNG with an average of $17.12. I have an order in to buy with 10% of funds at $16.3, I want to be patient with the other 10%. I believe the price will drop further today. I would rather be a little more miserly? here, and wait on the other 10% to see if I can get a better deal. It is looking like I won’t be able to get my $16.3 right now. The whole day is still before me.

Oldinvestor