I’m sharing NGZ19 from my Schwab account today, side-by-side of 2hr and daily charts. You can see that 2 hr is approaching upper BB. You can also see Dec contract has failed so far to reach upper BB. I took a small amount of my position of DGAZ off yesterday and looks like that was ideal. I’m happy to add that back in this morning at $94. I will try and keep an eye on this and get out if DGAZ begins to fall here. Weather is proving to be a unpredictable as usual. Cold concentration over the Northeast US is still holding true… With this week overall and yesterdays failure to break out going up, the market is ready to tumble once again.
Any bearish activity in the face of bullish fundamentals should be your first indicator; once those fundamentals turn bearish, it’s off to the races. No stops today, I’m hanging on for the ride from here.
Lets fade the gap. I’m not counting on it today, but maybe by tomorrow. DGAZ is hanging in there nicely. If EIA is not overly bullish today, my hope is DGAZ gets to $106+ by tomorrow. Just have to wait a few more hours and see.
Weather is giving a look at more normal temperatures. Daily chart looks good, 2 hour chart, not so good. If we can break down today, should at least get that red line and meet the 20EMA.
2hr chart showing some support, which you might exit here to try for a better position. I will be holding DGAZ with the same stop at $85, this time I’m putting the stop on my entire position. I will be careful around EIA report time, 10:30am Eastern time. I may remove the stop during the report and manage it manually. I will post if I think I should dump it. I’m hoping if DGAZ bounces, we don’t get near $85 so I don’t have to make a hard decision. We’ll see how it goes.
Zooming out to the weekly chart, we can see gas pegging multiple MA here. The price gapped higher, and this is a common theme for falling back to “fade the gap”. I don’t have a lot of confidence that gas will turn around here. I am going to put a lot of emphasis on weather. Watching weather in relation to NG over that last couple years, it seems the hardest thing to occur is also the most desirable. When cold comes down across Canada and hits the Northeastern US. It has been rare to occur and seems impossible to linger in that one location for long, yet the cold remains in the forecast.
Going off of my twitter feed here, I bought DGAZ at $117.8 with 2% of funds, and didn’t take my own advice of placing a stop at $114.5. I added to DGAZ yesterday at I believe $88.8 with 5% of funds. This is not an ideal trade and I should consider another stop (at least on the 5%) at $85-$86 on DGAZ. I’ll leave it at that. If we do head back down, I’ll switch back to daily chart for potential support areas of NG.
It looks as though gas is heading for new lows. Fundamentals aside, this is a clear indication the market wants to go back down. Since we are coming up on the weekend, I don’t want to get carried away with taking a new position in DGAZ. I like 3% here. This is a very small position. A lot can happen over the weekend. Weather could shift cold again; this is not highly likely so I’ll take a short position today. Short meaning I’m going to buy DGAZ.
Now for a look at 2 hour chart. We are rubbing on the lower BB (Bollinger Band). I’d like to see some pull back, maybe back to $118 on DGAZ to buy. Another thought would be to take 1% now, and buy more if DGAZ falls some. I think placing a stop at 114.5 would be a good choice. Since we don’t have a lot riding on this trade, we just won’t worry about it.
I personally am going to wait. I may get busy and miss out, but 5 min chart is trending higher. I’ll post a trade alert if I make a move.
I’m clueless. It’s Thursday, it’s cold, it’s projected to continue to remain cold. If it does stay cold, we will continue to go higher. Did I mention it is Thursday and the price is elevated from where the market has wanted to trade it lately. If feel we could get a surprise to the down side today but I’m not going to bet against the market at this moment. I am interested in 1 trade. Wait for the report, and short if the price pops and breaks above upper BB on 2 hours.
If the price falls after the report from say the current price, this may be a reversal or it may just be a road bump. If the price falls today and continues tomorrow I’ll go short and maybe buy DGAZ with 3% of my funds tomorrow. The price could dip today and turn to continue higher. If it remains cold, demand will remain elevated, but it must remain cold. The longer this goes on, the greater potential for a surprise fall in price, but right now I”m not ready to bet on a true reversal.
Please keep in mind when I talk about something going up or down, know that I’m talking about gas itself. I mentioned DGAZ, which is the inverse. I will always try to reference gas when I’m talking bullish or bearish.
Last thing, I’ve made some changes, there is a menu, including an education page with the First steps I’ve written organized there.
Yesterday I finally capitalized on all the scrapes made with $UNG. Content with adding more than 1% to my account, I exited all positions. Today I’ve gone 3% in $DGAZ at $112.75 with 1% added around $107.65, up for sale $1 higher, I may go into tomorrow at 3% or 4% in DGAZ.
As for what NG will do the rest of the week. I’m only 3-4% in DGAZ because my strong paranoia of $3 gas. Looks like DGAZ shot past 108.65, back to 3% in. Anyway, WX should get the credit for this run or at least for getting it kicked off. Short positioning among market movers should get the credit for the big move. It has turned winter on us and looks to be in the mood to stick around at least another week. Not only that, but HDDs are going to spike because the cold is going to land well within the Northwest, creating what we want, major NG demand increases. Moving into winter, all other factors become pointless to point out. It is now all weather driven demand vs production increases. Being that short positioning has been so extreme (really high) and price extremes (so low), this does play a factor in boosting this swing. So why didn’t I stay long, hell, I don’t know. Further more I should not have gotten in DGAZ yet. So be it. 3% here we go. I’ve gotten my average down to about $111, we’ll go with that.
NG does appear to be on target for 200MA, that’s about all I’ve got. Other than the big shift in cold to hit high demand areas of the US, I’ll go with not much as changed. I fully expect to see some pullback here, maybe even this week. November contract expires today so tomorrow and thursday will be as unpredictable as ever.
Correction, DGAZ went up, I’m out again… Thanks for playing
So Adam Mancini on Twitter believes we break out for a move up around 2.4 I’m long, so I like this idea, and I wouldn’t make it a habit to bet against Adam. He has very clear and concise goals when it comes to technical training, he’s just damn good at it. That being said, market sentiment is still weak, weather has been bullish so a surprise would be bearish, and oversupply still exists in a big way, hence the market sentiment. That’s a lot of commas momma. I’m just waiting for a significant break in one direction or the other outside of these trend lines. I may pittle around with some small long trades in the range if somehow the wedge doesn’t stay true. Any significant break below the lower trend, I will again add at lower BB and wait for either $2 gas or another significant signal that may come along. So far I’ve been pretty focused on daily charts and daily updates. This will probably remain for a while. I’ve got a guinea pig to help me start working on super basics. We’ll see how that goes.
First up, I’m not feeling the greatest, this always affects my ability to think.
Basically weather is still leaning bullish, Short positioning seems to be still in the mood to be setting records, and Pricing is back down around lows. Production got adjusted up yesterday by PointLogic. They do that every once and while. Basically gas production has been a little higher than what they were expecting. This increase in production is probably the most bearish factor and a key reason for prices failing so far this week. Not to mention, when prices continue to fail to go up during bullish weather forecasts, look out below. If weather is supportive of higher pricing and higher pricing doesn’t come… Weather can’t stay colder than average for long, eventually it will reverse and prices may suffer if they are only holding a range with bullish weather.
I have a couple of trend lines showing on this chart above, this could be tight support today, I’m not counting on it, but I am 27% in $UNG again. I will continue to layer in with each leg lower. Remember $UGAZ will slaughter you in winter with natural decay and roll decay. $UNG will sustain this much much much (3x) bettererer.
I drew a little different trend line pattern for Dec contract. I would be inclined to believe this one. A wedge pattern that I don’t really know what to expect from there. Weather might actually play a role, in either direction. If we continue to be cold for the next couple weeks and are projected to be cold from that point, maybe gas could break out upwardly. In an oversupplied market, cold has to work much harder than people understand. On the flip, if cold gives up and weather is average or warmer than average, gas could break down, rubbing on that lower BB. I’m still a believer in sub $2 gas and bankruptcies, and all that goes along with this… Including a huge swing in S/D and pricing if it comes to that. Oil is beginning to suffer, maybe we’ll get a repeat of 2014/15/16. Now I’m just rambling… I’ll add again if we reach the lower BB on Dec contract and I’ll reduce back to 20% if we get to that downward sloping trend line.
Gonna make this quick. Looks like we bounced from 38% Fibo yesterday, good area to reduce slightly. Today has a pretty tall upper wick, it’s not looking good for a breakout at this point. Weather is still predicting cold, LNG showing to hit a new high, but EIA confirmed the market still far oversupplied to get very excited. Since that last barrier was not broken, no “off to the races” signal for bulls. So first thought here is, we creep back down and re-test new lows, possibly 2.1 for Nov contract if it doesn’t end first. I call it boring friday, because tomorrow is shaping up to be just that.
And that’s why I’m in $UNG. We didn’t break down the support zone I last posted. At the time I didn’t have a upward range. Seems to be all about the moving averages today. 20EMA has been passed up, 50 and 75 SMA are converging (which means nothing to me), and are the next area of resistance. My Fibo placement is still from late Aug to mid Sept. That should be updated coming down, not going up.
Alright; with Fibo updated, not much has changed. Resistance here is strong, waiting to see if we break through. of course I’ve layered out some already with the hopes we get to 20.5 today on UNG and I can dump most of the rest. If we break down here, I’m now with 24% of my funds in UNG; I’d say I’m positioned well. i can always dump at even if we break down.
Short positioning almost hit the peak we were at 2 months ago
Price is super low!
Bounced right off of support area
That unpredictable bitch, Mother Nature showed up with a lot of TDDs
Technically we face resistance…
The market is Hurculeanly oversupplied
Last shot here, NG1 continuous chart; we’ve broken through 20EMA, 50 SMA and face 75SMA and 38% Fibo retracement very soon. This is not so far off from Dec contract. My thoughts on all this does not change looking from one chart to the other. I’m torn here, technically we face resistance, while weather is super bullish. It is Wednesday (which in a bullish week, is bullish more than not), we have momentum at our backs and it’s gonna be cold.
With all that said, I want to say today we go one more leg higher, at least test a new high for the week. If we break through today and EIA doesn’t smash our hopes and dreams tomorrow, we may run on up. Oh, and those weather predictors must remain cold. With short covering being a potential, the chances are actually good that if we break out here, we take off like a rocket. I’m not good at picking a target, but I’d say these moving averages could be good indicators of the breakout and moving on up to 120SMA (2.63ish December).