Morning Thoughts – Gas up, green confusion

My positions as of pre-market 2/1/21

Well I’m already getting called. I added SWN and RRC to my list. Gas is up on winter demand strength, but will it last? I’ll stay positioned how I am. Is “green” energy really going to phase the oil industry? I think, if anything, global oil demand will continue to grow. So to keep it short, I think if US oil demand continues to plateau or even decline, exports of US oil will grow. I don’t know much about oil, but it seems most other countries like US oil because of the weight of it…. That’s about all I know. If it’s a high demand oil, then it will get exported. I’m going to be looking into that some. I gotta go. I’m staying put today. Good Luck

Oldinvestor

Morning Thoughts – Pump in Dump

What the hell did you do to the market? Yes you… I’m only kidding. But for real, don’t act like you, a retail trader, can take on anyone of substantial size. First of all, even as a group, you don’t have enough collective monies to move billion dollar companies, without the help of some hidden fund managers amongst your ranks (or Elon Musk). Second, you’re just going to poke the bear and cause the SEC to develop even more ridiculous rules against retail traders. Maybe some rules need to change for shorting. I honestly don’t believe shorting is the problem. Computerized trading is a bigger problem. If the Exchanges were to regulate trades to take 10 seconds per trade or something… I don’t know. I know shorting brings liquidity to the market and that’s not a bad thing all the time. if it does cause a stock to fall, then maybe tighter restrictions. All I know is this week has shown me that the few are going to cause the many to lose after lunch recess if they don’t stop. Need to find another way. Maybe a march at the SEC building or something.

Enough of that.

My positions as of pre-market 1/29/21

Outside of EOG and SLB, two of my favorites, pissing me off, I’m pretty satisfied with my holdings. I did add 1 share to SLB yesterday. So I’m holding 2 SLB and 2 EOG *rolling eyes*.

As for Natgas, I’m holding my 50 long UNL and short 10 UNG still. I like this slightly long biased position still, with more emphasis on UNL being invested across all of 2021 contracts, and UNG being focused on prompt contracts. As long as storage remains a surplus to the 5 year average, this should continue to be a good trade.

UNL vs UNG from Jan 6, 2021

It doesn’t appear to be much in the way of decay happening yet, but this also isn’t much contango in natgas contracts right now. It will be interesting to see if I come out ahead in a few months on this. Well it’s boring friday and I have nothing left and a lot of shit to catch up on at work. Good Luck

Oldinvestor

Morning Thoughts – Not sure

I noticed yesterday I named the title “holding”. Now I realize I didn’t just hold. I didn’t even say I was holding, I made some changes. Maybe I’m spread a bit thin these days. Part of my reasoning for trying some actual long term positions.

My positions as of pre-market 1/27/21

on with it then…

I added to EOG by 1 share, reduced UNL by 25 shares at $8.1. Then I also added 4 REITs to my positions. It appears only my utilities and 1 REIT are in the green. Barf.

On to Gas… Weather is doing what weather does, swinging back and forth between warmer and colder than normal. I keep seeing missed chances to play UNG or even BOIL/KOLD on these swings. I even have confidence the market isn’t going to go for another huge tumble from here. I’ll will keep a closer eye on this now that I’ve filled the boat with a bunch of equities. All in all, gas is going nowhere, production isn’t really budging, as if producers can afford current pricing. I have heard a lot of news of cutting CAPEX. In fact, drilling activity has increased slightly.

The EIA Drilling report (https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/dpr-full.pdf) reflects this slight increase. Granted, I would think rig counts are too low to maintain the level of production that is currently flowing. With so many DUCs, it’s hard to tell. Of course, also on the EIA drilling page, there is a DUC supplement to the report, and a quick glace shows DUCs are on a sharp decline.

DUCs by region and the monthly change

This shows that many more wells are being completed that new wells being drilled… I need to see if Ron H. has any charts for the history of drilling and completions. It could be good info to have in order to establish a stance on production in the months to come.

history of DUCs by region at RonHenergy.com

well that was easy… RonH has DUC counts, now if I can find rig counts. I’ll have to ask about this… plus each region produces different amounts of gas, so they will effect the market a little different. This means I would still just be a guessing at best. I’m running out of time.

Drilling doesn’t really mean shit. You want to know how many wells were completed in each region, and the average size of these wells in each region. You also want to know the rate of decline per well so you can estimate how many new wells need to be brought online in order to simply maintain production. Then you can guess as to whether or not production will continue or fall as current well production declines and new wells are or are not being completed and brought online fast enough to maintain the status quo. My guess, without all the data, is that production will be on the decline. It’s more a matter of time. There are still plenty of DUCs for producers to complete and have access to new gas production, but most companies have cut back so much for so long now, we should start seeing cracks in the future of production. If LNG demand continues as this pace, eventually I should be all-in UNL. But when?

For now I’m going to sit tight and search for the data I need in the mean time.

I’m getting pestered about things no one can figure out.

Natgas surplus to the 5 year average at EIA Natgas Storage Dashboard

Good luck

Oldinvestor

Morning Thoughts – holding

My positions as of pre-market 1/26/21

So my utilities are seeing green while everything else is still down. EOG being the worst due to a small panic sell over the Government ceasing to issue permits to drill on federal lands. As if EOG will not be so greatly affected by this. I’m going to add 1 share of EOG to my positions today once the market opens. The rest will remain the same.

As for UNG/UNL, I’ll also keep these positions the same for now.

My positions on 1/6/21

This is the screenshot from when I originally shorted UNG. I’ve improved on UNL by adding 25 shares. Otherwise, there hasn’t been enough decay/change between UNG/UNL to speak of yet. It is just going to take a while for that trade to show what it’s worth. Though trading around a core position will mess with the original numbers, I’m not going to pass up what I think is an opportunity to manage the trade for better positioning. I’m still talking about adding the 25 shares to UNL at $7.9/share. If UNL gets into the green today, I’ll reduce that position back to 50 shares total.

My focus today:

add 1 share to EOG

reduce UNL back to 50 shares total above $8.10/share

One more thing – I’m adding in 4 REITs – SPG, SRC, O, WPC

What am I doing dealing with REITs? It seems like I’m very late to that party, but I like the idea and it’s only 4 shares, so I’m going to add 1 of each and see how that goes. Look for these changes to be posted tomorrow. Good Luck

Oldinvestor

Morning Thoughts – Everything is down

My positions as of 10:15am eastern time

Off to a weak start with my positions… As usual. These positions are long term, I have not yet taken the time to determine if I want to add to any of these positions. I think I will let this week finish out to see where things are heading before I get too anxious to buy more.

I did add AM to the list. I also added some utilities. FE, ETR, and PPL. I am also adding to my UNL position by 25 shares. I think that should do enough damage for now.

I’ll continue to hold UNG short for curiosity sake. It is at a nice gain, but I want to hold and see how it goes longer term vs UNL.

The EIA report is tomorrow due to the inauguration. Sorry for keeping it so short. Good Luck

Oldinvestor