Morning Thoughts – At home, playing Minecraft

It won’t be long and my 7 year old won’t want to spend every day with me, so I had better take advantage of it. so real quick…

First, I exited my 45 strike KOLD covered put. I am still holding on to my 40 strike covered put as it has not made it above 50% max gain again.

Projected Natgas demand has weakened just a bit with recent weather forecast changes. This means little to me as long as weather stays around normal for this time of year. As long as weather holds around normal and LNG demand stays relatively strong… the market is back on track to swallow up the storage surplus without extreme weather related demand. With my UNL reduction back to 150 shares, I’m very content to be holding where I am with the gain that I have.

As for the UNG trade I made on Wednesday on the pullback. It worked until I moved the stop up and got busy with work. I got stopped out at my entry price of 10.4. I should have left the stop alone, and I would have been ahead 40cents at one point. Oh well, I would have gotten out regardless because gas seemed to move too fast at one point and sure enough it pulled back again. If I were not about to focus on Minecraft, I might jump back into UNG again, for a similar test. Well, except that same 2 hour pattern has broken down… Taking a break for today.

For now I’m going to hold what I have and enjoy the weekend. I hope you do the same.

Oldinvestor

Morning Thoughts – Covered Puts

My KOLD covered puts are not part of my Webull example account, but I wanted to share because it is still gas related trade.

I also have a couple LABU covered puts that are just “hanging in there”. I was playing with LABU on the chart, plotting where I shorted it and the current break-even price for each position. I’m exceptionally well to protect the position, or the options premium is rather.

I’ve shared here this same visual relating my KOLD position on a chart. The pink and yellow lines represent the covered puts I’m currently holding. the lines begin on the day I entered the trade, at the price I shorted each trade. The line extends to where my break-even price for the current expiration date of the put I’m holding.

This visual shows me what kind of trend I can withstand if KOLD moves against me. Sometimes I just focus on price and this helps me to see price and time. Typically all things correct with enough time, and right now KOLD is doing a little of that. The main objective is for gas related demand to stay strong, storage surplus to be swallowed up and to make money on my long bias. If that does not happen, I need to protect the position. Having these lines on the chart, can help with this. If the trend is still against me by 12/18/2020 for my 45 strike expiration, I may need to roll the put higher, or maybe consider exiting.

KOLD covered puts Break-Even line drawn for each trade with projected expiration break-even prices.

Positions and then one last thing before it disappears. So I reduced UNL; the position was rather large, and I just don’t do big wild positions for long anymore. I feel like I’ve sized UNL to the a comfortable position and will ride it out from here.

My positions as of pre-market 11/25/2020

UNG/BOIL/NGF21 all look like the chart below at this moment. OK, well NGF21 looks a bit different because the data is different for NG rather than ETFs. But UNG matches well enough to call it good (this time).

So, On the 2 hour chart there has been slight pull back to the 20MA. I’m going to long UNG at 10.4 with 100 shares for the hell of it and placing a stop close by at 10.30. It will have to be a mental stop until the market opens, as stops are not allowed or some BS on the stock exchange until regular market hours. What a ridiculous rule for the digital age. Anyway, UNG has already pulled back and broken above the top of that preceding red candle. The 5 min chart is trying to break down as I speak, so I’ll keep as close an eye on it as I can until market open. If I really wanted this, I would stop at 10.20, but I’m not budging. 10.3 is where I will stop out. I have enough confidence to go long here with a quick trade, but I want to keep losses small if it comes to that.

UNG on 2 hour chart at Tradingview.com

All my positions above, I’ll be holding until Friday. If the market jumps Friday, I may make a change. have to wait and see.

The UNG trade I’m making this morning, I will hold it as well if it gives me some breathing room. If it goes to 10.5 and stops there, I may just dump it. 10.6 and I’ll hold and keep my stop where it is. The key is for the price to continue trending higher, with higher lows and higher highs.

I hope that you have a great Thankgiving or just a great day overall. Good Luck

Oldinvestor

I almost forgot; The EIA report is today. Should be at 10:30 est. time unless I’m wrong… Investing.com is showing 12:00 est. time.

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Morning Thoughts – Waiting

I’m not even sure what to say here today. I’m distracted by speedometers and vaccines. Vaccines, of course, are good for Oil and Gas since it will help boost demand. Well… Good for Oil anyway. Natgas is getting consumed at a strong rate regardless. Oil being suppressed was good to keep associated gas output down. Since oil storage is evening out; prices will start to recover, and producers will get back to work.

My one thought about oil is Iran. Iran is exporting Oil anyway, they have Chinese and Russian support. But if US sanctions are lifted, with Biden in office…. And Iran is shifting presidential powers I guess? All these changes gives rise to risky decisions, like Iran saying they are going to do what they want, like exporting as much oil as they want, spurring drama in OPEC, and potentially flooding the market? I don’t really know… It’s just my paranoia kicking in. Of course, if OPEC gets into a squabble and floods the world with oil again, it will keep US oil production down and associated gas down as well. It’s always something.

Besides all that, I’m still holding.

My positions as of Pre-Market 11/24/2020

KOLD is currently showing a profit for the last covered put I placed. And I’m showing the wrong expiration date for that thing. How about 12/18/2020. I copy and paste each line when I enter a new trade, then forget to change the date. Also, I may not be at such a profit, as the bid/ask for KOLD options is not very good. I still feel good about the position of all my trades currently. Well… All my gas trades anyway.

There is a strong chance I will reduce UNL by the end of the week. right now it looks like it could be as early as today. I moved my limit up to $8.25 for now. It’s the lowest ask price on the exchange right now. Since it is 100 shares, it is showing up as the ask for UNL. That’s not important, just kinda cool. Anyway, If Natgas continues slowly higher today, I will lower my UNL ask down to $8.15 or take $8.13 if prices just stop there. I like to reduce when holding a rather large position. I always will. It has kept me out of trouble for the most part.

As for UNG, I’ll just hold on to it. If I reduce UNL today, this will give me some room for more UNL or UNG down the line. It will take some time, but the market will respond to any decreases to the storage surplus, and it is still coming. Patience

Oldinvestor

Morning Thoughts – Slow but Steady

It’s Thanksgiving week, so the markets will be closed Thursday, but Should be open Friday. Maybe the stock markets will close at noon on Friday? something like that. The EIA Natgas report will be on Wednesday this week, hopefully at the same time as normal.

Natgas “should” trade a little slower this week. With bearish weather, and storage acting as though it was going to fill to the max, prices are, what I would consider a bargain. Storage will not fill, but the threat of such an occurrence got our attention. There should be draws on storage from here on out. It will be a matter of when the surplus will be destroyed.

I’m going to refer to the latest free Bluegold article and move on to my positions, as I have not much else to say today.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4390775-natural-gas-prices-will-rise-even-weather-forecast-remains-unchanged

My positions as of pre-market 11/23/2020

It’s looking like natgas isn’t going to get on a run up any time real soon without some major cold. The likelihood of a cold blast is always small, so I will plan on a slow, bumpy ride from here.

I am still interested in reducing UNL by 100 shares at my average of $8.13.

As for UNG, I may just dump it the day it sees a profit? I’m not sure. I suppose if it comes quickly, I’ll exit. if it takes a while, then I may place a stop once it crosses above my average. I will be looking into this and post it as soon as I make a decision. Good Luck

Oldinvestor

Tradingview is having a Black Friday Sale. I don’t think I get credit if you do the sale, but it’s a good deal.

https://www.tradingview.com/gopro/?share_your_love=oldinvestor

Morning Thoughts – Boring Friday? Maybe

It’s supposed to be slow Friday, yet someone already wants something… Fine. Let’s make this quick. Demand has sucked, mostly Residential/Commercial demand has sucked. But this is related to super bearish weather, and the average will even things out. For example, the forecast has shifted a bit cold from a couple days ago to now. So prices got on a rip yesterday due to weakness in demand, and storage threatening to fill to max capacity. We know storage can’t fill to the max at this point, but it is still influencing market until a stronger draw season has come around. All this has been overshadowing the lack of production that isn’t going away now anytime real quick. Weather will also swing bullish at some point, and prices will react the other direction. I’ve loaded up on UNL. As long as UNG isn’t crushed, I’m all set. And my average is decent, and if prices fall from here, I can always cut it off for a relatively small loss.

So I added 100 shares of UNL at $7.95, I’m content with that. The last price for yesterday shows $7.85, but should open closer to $8 today if natgas prices hold where they are. If prices rocket up to my break even of $8.13, I will reduce the 100 shares. If prices don’t make it to $8.13, I’ll hold the total 250 shares over the weekend. UNG will be held for a while now. I have not been so focused on UNG, and got a bit ahead of myself. I’ll just wait to see how things are going to make any changes to UNG. It’s pretty well stuck right now.

1 order to reduce UNL at $8.13 – to reduce by 100 shares. Hold the rest. Oh crap, I entered another KOLD covered put for December expiration. I considered rolling the first covered put back to December expiration to be able to manage it more closely. I’m not going to do this, I’ll just hold it where it is. The latest KOLD covered put is a 45 strike, and a break even of $49.61. I’m pretty happy with this trade; it will expire in December and I’ll have a chance to roll and reposition if I choose and the market is calling for it.

I have updated the BBB strategy with the latest results, and they are bad. I don’t have much to say, except I’ll probably be back to the drawing board on that one.

Click here to see the BBB strategy update

Hope the weekend is good to you.

Oldinvestor