I don’t really have a lot to say, I was looking through some screenshots of my positions and found when my account balance was similar to my current balance. Just thought it might be worth sharing. The overall market currently is lower, and I’m long biased on the trade, so decay must be working a little as my balance is 47 cents away from my March 3rd balance.
The Top image is the trade from March 3, and the next image is from early this morning (March 9). I may be splitting hairs, but I don’t have much else to point out. I just need to give it more time I suppose. I do half expect the market to move fairly slow, and possibly lower from here. I’m already watching for a a point at which to buy more UNL. Patience though; it seems the market is still heavily supplied, and if Oil prices are nearing $70/bbl, the areas of Texas will be back to paying to get rid of gas in order to sell the oil. Maybe they should pay residential/commercial/industrial recipients to take it…
Here is the same timeline from March 3 to now. It doesn’t tell much. I do have a line marked on the chart from when I first shorted UNG.
Ok, From Jan 6, 2021 to now; this would be long UNL, short UNG only. UNL seems to be beating UNG at this point. It is only by a small margin. By my rough estimate that I needed 1.8 times the amount of money invested in UNL to help balance out a UNG short position.
I shorted $95.7 worth of UNG on Jan 6, or 10 shares.
UNL was at $8 at some point that same day. So 1.8 times the $95.7 of UNG = $172.26, divided by $8 per share = 21.53. I’ll round up to 22 shares for long biased trade (cost of $176).
Based on the latest values of on Tradingview, UNG is at $9.95/share and UNL $8.11/share
UNG would be at a $3.8 loss while UNL would be at a gain of 2.42.
I’m still at a loss overall
I’m seeing now on the hourly chart, UNG is still at a gain to UNL, plus I sold UNG at a lower price than shown on the chart.
If I adjusted my values of entry (UNG to $9.74/share and UNL to $8.01/share), then UNG would be at a $2.1 loss and UNL at $2.42 gain. Bid/Ask really took its toll on this trade, since we are splitting hairs that is.
The Bigger point!
A bigger point I wanted to make is the interest. UNG has fallen under Hard-to-borrow ever since UGAZ was delisted it seems. the rate has been around 2.3% annualized through Webull. Schwab has a better interest rate, but I’ll use Webull’s rate since that is where the trade is being held. I’m sure there is a calculation somewhere to officially tally the interest, but I’m going to wing it with 365 days in a year and count weekend days. 2.3% divided by 365 would be is 6.3^10-5 per day; multiplied by 61 days = .3843835% times roughly $100. Since UNG has been up, my short position would have been valued at higher than my entry. From the hip I’m going to say the value was $100 and the interest that I’ve paid to Webull is roughly $0.38 since Jan 6, 2021, as of today.
Sooooo…. Even if I got a perfect entry and was up by 31 cents this morning, I would be down by 7 cents due to the interest that I owe to Webull. Hmmm, after looking through my February accounts statement, I am not seeing anything about interest paid, margin paid, hard to borrow…. Anyway, my point has been made, it has not been a good 61 days for UNL vs UNG. There has also been low contango in this same time frame. Had I taken this trade the 6 months prior to when I did, I would have undoubtedly made money on decay; that is, had I not gone too heavy on UNL.
ok, I’ve successfully turned a quick update into a long drawn out rambling about 1 trade. I gotta go do real work stuff now. I will be watching to add to UNL, but in no rush as I’m already long biased. Good Luck