Morning Thoughts – I’m taking a break

My positions as of pre-market 2/4/21, click image for larger view

I’m going to take a break from trading gas. Just when it’s starting to get good, I know… Fate or God one are telling me to stop. Maybe find myself or something. I’ve never given much thought to chi/internal energy or anything. I know I’m not having any fun in life, and it’s making me cranky (every day). I never did come up with a way to run gas trading on auto pilot. Maybe because I always got too excited and bit off more than I could chew.

The site will still be here, and I’ll still make some trades and share them. I will not be talking about where I think Natgas is headed. I will still share changes in my account (when I buy or sell). I reduced my UNL position down to 40 shares from 50 shares yesterday at $8.26. I am still short 10 UNG. It is hard to gauge how much UNL vs UNG short I should own to stay long biased. Currently 3.3 to 1 value should be getting close to evenly split, and leaning a bit long sided still.

If you’re going to keep trading gas and feel lost. Remember to keep an eye on storage surplus/deficit, and the market’s ability to create more or less of a surplus to the average. Prices will skew lower when storage is moving toward or deeper into a surplus; Prices will skew higher when moving toward or deeper into a deficit. Winter seems to bring on 1 panic buy and then done, without any meaningful winter demand. Stop going long, expecting winter to bring about some kind of crazy bullish market.

Don’t trade only Natgas if it causes you to bite off more than you can chew. Keep positions small.

I’ll still be around. Good Luck


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