Morning Thoughts – New Opportunity

Now that I’m getting crushed by Natgas (not really), I have a chance to take advantage of this downturn.

NGF21 on Daily Chart at Proposal Head and Shoulder pattern

It is certainly shaping up to look like Head and Shoulder could form, but there is a while to go before this potential. Also I don’t believe this will happen, I just saw it on the screen. I would just as well believe we get some kind of bounce here and possibly a turn around. Or we crash through the neckline and go down further.

Fundamentals are pretty much holding to weather related demand right now. Weather sucks, and it’s dragging gas down with it. Granted, this wouldn’t be such a big deal if storage weren’t flirting still with max capacity.

I exited SLB yesterday, as posted. I made $55 on that trade, and that has kept my account from looking like total poo during this moment while gas tumbles.

I’m going to increase my UNL position. I could be much too early on this idea, as usual…

If the price keeps going, it will open an opportunity up to roll heavily into UNG or even BOIL. I will be waiting a while, like if NGF21 goes to $2.50. And… It needs to get there fast, for a quicker return. The market is starting to get excited in a bearish way again, there is room based on market maker positioning, so no need to get excited to go long.

My positions as of pre-market 11/19/2020

Right now, I’m focused on adding to UNL. Another 100 shares. I will be using 100% of my cash and start to borrow from margin, but last month I paid $2 in interest, so I’m not so concerned about that as I am about keeping the trade alive and attempting to manage the risk.

Here’s one last look

Monthly UNL chart at

I’m going to leave it at this. I like this entry. I would like to get in at an even $8. I’ll probably end up with $8.10 to $8.15 or so. I’ll be fine with that. EIA report is today, at 10:30 est time.

With as much drop in price as there has been, support could be waiting until the report to get in. Not highly likely, but a guy can hope… Good Luck


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