Morning Thoughts – The correct EIA report day

So today is the day the EIA report will be this week. EIA used to push report day from Thursday to Friday when a holiday fell the in the same week. Then they stopped doing that. Veterans day fell on Wednesday, so maybe that is why they pushed the report back this time…

Anyway, I shared a screenshot yesterday, inventory vs Total Degree Days. I don’t have time to explain TDDs, but here is a basic explanation from the Nation Weather Service.

https://www.weather.gov/ffc/degdays

Weekly Inventory Changes vs TDDs at RonHenergy.com

RonHenergy.com is down right now, so I’ve shared the link to his tableau public page for this chart.

So my point about the screenshot above. It has nothing to do with weather… It has everything to do with non-weather related factors, such as exports, lack of production, and even some power burn. Weather related demand will still effect demand swings from one week to the next. This chart is showing a similar trend, as previous years, just in a different range. 2018 and 2019 become more and more oversupplied, and 2020 this reversed the trend. Now this chart would express drop in the ability to build inventory by roughly 50Bcf to 60Bcf per week. This is 7.14 to 8.57Bcf/day.

The main thing that could screw up my permabull status is a crash in LNG exports again. At least that’s the most likely to occur in my opinion. There really isn’t much else to say. I’m long and staying long until LNG backs up or else drastic happens that causes me to dump and run. I have said lot about production coming back online, and this is also likely, it will be limited and slower than if LNG exports where to crash.

my positions as of pre-market 11/13/2020

For now I’m holding all positions. Natgas prices are higher this morning, so UNL should move a bit higher. I’m wanting to see much higher. It will take help from weather related demand to get the price I want soon. So the EIA report is actually today at 10:30est. Traders are most likely sizing up on the chance of another draw. Ron H had posted some info on Twitter that makes me think today will be a inventory build, so I will be happy to see anything but.. Good Luck. I hope the weekend is a good one.

Oldinvestor

Also, I hope to be updated my BBB strategy closer to the end of the day. Check it out here.

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