Morning Thoughts – Which way is up?

I’ll have to get back to this later. Coming in to work with equipment that 2 prior shifts could not get running… Gonna have to take care of that right now. I hit 3 red lights in a row this morning, first thing. I knew something was up. If UNG dips another 30 cents or more today, I’ll buy a little more, maybe 5 shares for the example account, that would be 3% or so? Good Luck

Oldinvestor

So I got equipment running in 3 hours that has been down for 16. In fact, I spent 1 hour getting shit together to fix the problem, 1 hour fixing the original problem, and another hour working on a second problem that was created because the connections are touchy and someone touched them.

Anyway, who is the president? DJ Trump is… Who’s gonna be the president for the next 4 years? No clue. Don’t care. I just wanna trade, make some money, and work on my c10 pickup.

Bla… I added to UNG a little bit ago at $11.56. I added 10 shares; so I’m not holding an almost substantial position in my example Webull account.

My positions as of mid day 11/4/2020

You’ll see that SLB was rolled forward to 12/4/2020, and I added 44cents of options premium. This brings the max gain back up $65, and my break-even is now $16.35. I’m excited about this, because this position has been keeping my account balance down. I’m ok with the setback, it’s just so large compared to the way I’ve traded this account. It’s always the big bites that take a bite back.

As for the natgas market… I am a bit out of the loop today. I think the weak demand should be showing up strong right now due to the warm weather that’s upon us. The forecast is showing something closer to the average for what is to come. This should support pricing. I can’t see the election having much bearing on natgas pricing directly. Production and LNG are about what is to be expected: production has returned to a improved weak state, and LNG is at record high output? So more focus on weather I guess… Which is not unusual, but is the swing factor for a change.

Mean Reversion

click the image to make it larger

UNG backtesting 2m with Bollinger Band/RSI redundant strategy

So more about this strategy I built. So I’ve changed one thing since I showed this yesterday. First, you see three plotted markings on the chart for yesterday. The first says “Exit”, the second says “Enterlong”, and the third says “Entershort”. So The strategy can exit a trade (long or short) by stopping out… Or… The strategy may flip sides if the opposite signal is plotted. So the one thing I changed, was increase the trailing stop on all positions taken from 20cent to 60cents. This improved the win/loss ration from around 50% to around 65%, and also improved amount made to around 100% from the end of July to now.

It’s too good to be true. Now, I think that increases the trailing stop is an improvement that should help no matter what, I’ll know soon enough. It could just open the door to bigger losses when the strategy gets on a losing streak. This is all I have time to spout about for now. Just understand I’m NOT trading on these indicators. I don’t have the time or a way to alert myself if set up the alerts. I’m not allowed to carry my phone on my at work so that’s out….. barf. I’m just reminding myself of life… It’s always something. So I want to track this and see how it evolves. If there is any interest in this part or not, I’m going to try and put something consistent together in this direction. I love backtesting with Tradingview, and like to share the results. Let’s do it again tomorrow… earlier.

Oldinvestor

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