Morning Thoughts – Oldinvestor

There’s a Hurricane a comin’. And it’s a big one.

Projected path of Hurricane Delta Morning of 10/7/20

You know I wasn’t even watching for Hurricanes this week. Good thing I waited to see if UNG was going to close above the 20 day MA. Right now it’s all about Hurricane Delta. Ships will scatter some, causing some disruption to LNG exports. Of course Cameron just came back online this week and that is still fresh on traders’ minds. That letter M on the graphic above means Delta is already expected to be big before it gets close to the Gulf coast. This means more flooding, and potentially more power outages very close to Cameron again. If this pattern were to hold, I think it’s a matter of waiting for the storm to pass, but any change in pattern to the left, and this will steer NG prices lower.

Hurricanes spin counter clockwise in the northern hemisphere. So if the hurricane stays on the projected path, it will dump most water on say New Orleans. Cameron may be ok this go around after a day or so to let Delta pass. I am showing, from right to left, Cameron, Sabine Pass, Freeport, and Corpus Christi on the map above. Cameron could sustain wind damage again and tear up all that hard work that was just completed getting power restored. I think you get the idea. Big NG traders are not betting on everything being just fine. So I’ll wait another day or two. I’m itching to add on this drop in price, but I’d rather wait, I think, until this storm makes landfall Friday.

Currently I’m not doing so well, but I’m really content with my current positions. SLB stopped falling like a rock. Oil bounced some this week. I’ve hear refiners are struggling with a shift in focus away from jet fuel to more diesel. All in all, oil storage is slowly coming down in the US, and production continues to be quite low. Beyond that, I have no idea what to expect for Oil; I will just continue to hold SLB. It’s not real exciting, but I’m also not getting slaughtered. Cheers to waiting for the next wave. Good Luck