Morning Thoughts – Oldinvestor

So I shorted UNG with 10 shares. It is doing quite well already. Storage sucks for November; and the rest of the market tumbled yesterday as well. Everyone and there brother has been talking about November falling hard since Henry Hub cash (the next day pricing for Henry Hub) has been staying well below $2. November contract, right now, is near $2.5. Cash will win out with storage this high and LNG continuing to show weakness.

First, my positions.

Position and P/L as of pre-market 9/30/20, click the image to view larger

Now that I’ve made this sheet to display my positions, it looks as though it needs to be cleaned up…. Later… Right now I’m holding SLB and UNL long, and shorted 10 shares of UNG. I could have gone long on KOLD; I mainly wanted to short UNG just to test it out in Webull. If something ever happens to BOIL/KOLD, the non leveraged ETNs will be all that is left.

Anyway, what to do from here. SLB first. Looks like if I’m going to roll, I had better do it very soon. The 18.5 call I’m holding is down to $0.04, and my break even is $17.46. So if I cover this call at 4c and roll out and down, I can get in a 17 strike call with expiration 30 days away for near 50c. This will be a zero gain trade, but I get the feeling SLB is not going to bounce right now. So I’m going to chase it lower by rolling down. I may regret this, but I want to see If I can catch this one. I wouldn’t try this with and NG related ETF, but I will with SLB. I can enter a call that is 37 days away (Nov 6 expiration), and get my break even below $17/share. This is what I am going to do this morning. Roll my SLB call down and out to 17 strike on Nov 6 expiration. This will not make but $21, vs the $104 or the original trade. I am behind nearly $200 just on the SLB trade, so if this helps me get back to a profit, or sets me up for another roll that will help get me back to a profit closer to year end, I will go that route. If SLB drops much further, I’m at a complete loss. At that point I will either cut it off and put that money into UNL or something else; or I can always just ride it out. Barf.

As for NG. I’m going to hold my UNG short to see if I can get another 3% and probably exit UNG. I am going to buy more UNL at some point, but I do not know yet when. The market isn’t there yet, this is all I know. I am sure to wait until LNG strength returns or is about to.

That’s it for me. Today is SLB roll out an down. Good Luck

Oldinvestor