So production got hit, then came back then hit again. I don’t know why or where. At this point it is hard to believe production would fall much further in the short term. By this, I mean quick and sharp losses, like wells were shut in. It could be maintenance somewhere that I don’t know about. LNG has also taken a hit at Sabine Pass and Freeport, but not before total exports reached 8 Bcf for a day.
Ron H passed on to everyone on Twitter yesterday that Cameron may get power by the end of the month. That is awesome. I would imagine Entergy is having to re-wire and sink new poles in the ground. So natgas will will most likely take a bit longer to use up that extra storage. I got some UNL late last week in my account that I don’t share, but I’m in no rush to add with the current oversupply continuing and the erratic conditions with LNG exports.
As for my positions. I will remain unchanged. I could add to UNL, but there is this small chance prices could fall a little further. For someone just getting in, a good trade right now, I would think, is Long UNL/Short UNG, with a lot of weight on UNL. Also I wouldn’t short UNG unless it there was no interest fees to short it. $0.53 in contango from X to Z contract. That’s roughly 16% or $2 lost to contango in UNG.
I’ll be holding to see what happens. Everything has been turned upside down in natgas and it is certainly hard to sift through at the rate I do lately. No need in being in a rush; I want to see how the market does this week some before I choose to add to UNL. That may be my next move. Good Luck