Morning Thoughts – Oldinvestor

LNG is back above 7Bcf/d thanks to Sabine Pass nearing it’s record consumption of around 4Bcf/d. Production is also super bullish; continued weakness with no significant signs of increasing. I have a feeling producers are waiting. They all know it’s a matter of time… If they can just hold out another few months for storage to start going the other way. LNG is doing their part, now it is just a waiting game before prices will be at a point at which they cannot fall but so far, giving producers the signal to increase. The gas is there, just need a new round of greed to tell frac crews to get after it.

On the bearish side of things. I’ve not seen this many tropical disturbances at once on the map. This does not mean anything, as I am not a weather expert. It is just that time of year and it looks wild.

Home page of National Hurricane Center https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

And of course, mostly do to the lack of LNG two weeks ago, South Central Storage has spiked.

Weekly South Central Storage vs South Central 5 year average at RonHenergy.com

This just might have some effect over prices continuing to fall last week. This puts South Central Non-Salt at 90% capacity, according to the EIA. https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/storage/dashboard/

On this same web page, South Central temperatures have been above normal in recent history. So power burn is not lacking. We will most likely see an improvement to Non-Salt storage in this week’s EIA report and from here on. It is still threatening to be at 90% capacity, so I’ll still be watching this weekly until November.

My positions

UNL – 50% in with an average of $7.4 – holding

SLB and BOIL

SLB and BOIL covered trades as of market close 9/11/20

My SLB expiration date is 9/25/20. I’ll enter that now. Looks like I’m doing quite well right now. Natgas is up this morning, so BOIL will start working against me again. This is good though. I need BOIL to get higher, just not skyrocket. SLB is being influenced by oil, so that isn’t helping, but should stay pretty flat. Some noise needs to happen so premiums will be worth selling. That’s it for me. I’m happy to hold where I am. Good Luck

Oldinvestor