Morning Thoughts

I read a lot of wild speculation last night on Twitter. I actually couldn’t tell if people were serious or making fun of something they heard. Beware of the permabulls. If the natgas market goes on up, it should be a stair step and a long process. Storage is still too high to for a market that waits until the last minute to react. Momentum is in favor of bulls, and supposedly there are more LNG boats than exports now.

We’ve seen that LNG exports aren’t bullet proof, and I think we will see a bit of a ripple in demand fluctuation. As for NG prices, sure they will rise, and I am a believer that prices will rise heading into 2021 (cal21). Mike Zaccardi shared an image on twitter that I can’t access right now showing the surplus of gas getting swallowed up and projecting a deficit by the end of winter. This, to me, makes UNL a great choice, even now.

I believe the best bet right now is to bet on 2021 being under-supplied to start the year. I think LNG will increase enough, even with a mild winter to use up the surplus gas inventory. It will take all winter if this winter is like the last 4.

UNL – 50% of my max comfort invested from $7.4 – holding

So UNL is still my favored choice and no reason for me to change my mind yet. I continue to be paranoid of my BOIL short position, but counting decay on that sucker, I’ll be fine.

BOIL covered puts.

Covered puts P/L as of market close 8/28/20

You should see a drop in my overall profits; this is because I didn’t have the Total counting all profits and losses. I just didn’t total up all the cells on the spreadsheet; this has been corrected. I’m still doing just fine on this trade.

That’s all I’ve got, I’ve switched from back and forth trading every week to holding forever. I feel like I should be a little more active. Maybe after September, I’ll get back into trading some UNG. Good Luck