Morning Thoughts – Oldinvestor

Production is really stuck in a range here between 88-90Bcf/d. Today’s EIA report is expected to build storage slightly greater than the 5yr average. This would mean little to me or the market. As I’ve said in previous posts, the market seems to care little about storage, and more about LNG coming back. Pricing has been playing catch-up , and it has pretty well balanced out. I am very cautious about Oct/Nov contracts, but think winter is right were it should be. I will be watching South Central and East storage. I read in an NGI article that East was a concern to some analyst, somewhere.

https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/storage/dashboard/

Total storage isn’t a concern, as prices would be below $2 still if it were. There is no rush, but I’m still spotlighting South Central storage.

Weekly South Central Storage thus for (8/7/2020) this year and 5yr average South Central at RonHenergy.com

I don’t have a lot to spray today. I suppose I could also include LNG loads. Below is the number of load for each month by the 19th day of the month. LNG exports are slowly improving already and of course, are expected to continue doing so.

LNG exports – Number of loads exported by the 19th day of the month each month. RonHenergy.com

My positions

UNL – 50% of funds in at $7.4 – this position has made roughly $105 on my $1000 account, and not has my account balance back to a high point of almost 5% ahead.

My covered puts haven’t changed, and I haven’t made time to consider any options spreads in BOIL or anything else.

BOIL covered puts as of market close 8/19/20
Covered puts P/L as of market close 8/19/20

I mentioned a butterfly or something in BOIL. I’m really content right now with what I’m holding. Good Luck

Oldinvestor