Morning Thoughts – Oldinvestor

South Central weekly storage vs South Central weekly 5 year average storage at RonHenergy.com

A build of 3Bcf vs a Draw of 7Bcf for the 5 year average. Just keep this in your back pocket. Even with LNG online, south central storage can still build roughly 270Bcf from about now to EOS. It happened just last year with, whata you know 6-7Bcf/d…

Weekly South Central storage from weeks 28 to 47 during 2013 to 2020, found at RonHenergy.com
Daily LNG Export facility feedgas for terminals in Gulf of Mexico found at RonHenergy.com

Storage facilities want cheap gas to resell at higher prices down the road, so they aren’t going to discourage taking on more gas. I got my hands on some historical regional production numbers and gas that could flow to this area is relatively weak in the last 4 months. Regional spot pricing is still struggling to get much above $2. Waha Hub showing $1.13 yesterday morning. This would discourage producers from sending gas down the line if they can stomach holding back some production until EOS.

Not to take away from the recent rally or to scare anyone; South Central natgas storage could still become a real issue, so keep an eye on it. The EIA Natural Gas Storage Dashboard (https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/storage/dashboard/) is a good place to check regional storage each week.

As for today and heading into next week, I am half tempted to take another covered put against BOIL, closer to the money this time. I guess I’ll sit tight and hold that thought for now. My partner needs some help with a call he’s on. I should return.

BOIL Covered puts as of close 8/6/20
Covered puts P/L as of close 8/6/20

UNL – 50% in from $7.4

Webull account performance where I’ve traded UNG/UNL/UGAZ/USO/USL

So above is me piecing together Profit/Loss from my Webull account. They give a little window that shows a P/L performance chart and doesn’t appear to be expandable. Oh well. At first SPY was kicking my butt, then thing turned and SPY go slaughtered. I guess maybe I’m used to getting slaughtered in gas so I managed it well enough to limit losses. From inception to now, I’m 1.65% ahead in this account.

All in all, my webull trading (UNG/UNL/UGAZ mostly) account profited as much as 5% and as lost almost -8% at one point. Then only to get back to 1.65% because I switched to the safest ETF I could find during a big bullish swing. All in the name of protection. I’ve missed out on some good moves, but I’ve also not felt a lot of pain. If I consider the market I’ve been fighting and as long as I learn from this, I’ll continue on.

I’m going to hold UNL with 50% of my funds, UNL moves very differently than UNG. For me, buy the dip with UNG is still too soon. This means I will miss out on bullish moves, but I still don’t feel comfortable going long on an ETF that trades on prompt pricing and could get into trouble in a similar way USO did this year. For now I’m holding what I have to head into the weekend. Good Luck and I hope your weekend is relaxing and enjoyable.

Oldinvestor