Morning Thoughts – Oldinvestor

I think we all get a case of ADHD or ADD to some degree. Everything is distracting this morning. Try and remember what’s most important to you and do your best not to get distracted by what other people try to make you think should be important to you.

Natgas production continues to be weak? Canadian imports are at the higher end of their range, but not enough to make up the difference. Weather is predicted to be extremely bullish. LNG feed gas continues to hold at 4Bcf/d. I’m guessing that LNG feed gas will not rise to 6-7Bcf/d for a bit; there are still many cancellations to process. LNG facilities have their own storage, and it has been lower than it may need to be if exports are going to ramp up soon. So 4Bcf/d may simply be in preparation of exports actually increasing.

LNG weekly storage at RonHenergy.com

Also it is August 6th today, and we may already be working on September delivery. Either way, everyone has this knowledge and the market trend is up for now. Going out on a limb here, I would put a floor under September contract at $2 minimum. Production may be in the driver seat soon. LNG actual demand is going to increase and NG prices could very well keep going up with each bump in LNG feed gas increase. LNG feed gas will plateau at some point and production will be the bigger fluctuating point. Prices will recover more and producers will want to…. umm… produce more. As long as LNG keeps taking gas away, production shouldn’t be able output more than will be used… for a while. Then it’s a matter of Supply/Demand and when and how much surplus storage is being used to determine price. Right now things are uber bullish. I’ll stick with that. Don’t short unless you have protection such as 70 or 90 strike put in BOIL to pad your shorts.

UNL – I’m 50% in UNL with an average of $7.4 – back to holding this position for a while I beleive

BOIL covered puts

BOIL covered puts as of market close 8/5/20

I never did post my spreadsheet yesterday that contained profit/loss. I will try again today. The numbers didn’t look right and I think I know why. I will I don’t plan to make any changes today. Good luck today. EIA report at 10:30 estern time.

Oldinvestor

Here are my current and previous held covered put profits and losses.

BOIL and KOLD open and closed position P/L as of market close 8/5/20

My BOIL share entry price in the broker is the average of the two entry prices and I traded a few shares of BOIL around the 90 strike put. This will alter the final numbers compared to the broker. This spreadsheet is most accurate to start of the trade and includes any roll profits the broker screenshot doesn’t show.