Morning Thoughts – Oldinvestor

It appears production is still down? No idea why, but the market is going to go past my $2.5 October mark if this continues. If there is anything I’ve learned about natty, is she will get on a roll and I’ll never know the real reason why, but have gotten a little better at recognizing it when I see it. I’ll hammer this again; the market seems to wait until the last minute to make a move. It’s like all the anticipated moves are 3 months down the curve. What I mean is, there was time to anticipate this bullish move, but all the pros traded up November and winter contracts after November. Anyone trading September or October wait until the bullish evidence is right in front of them to “bid it up”. I could go a little further out on the limb and say that most quant systems or automated systems trade more the prompt contract and they have been waiting for something substantial on the technical side to give the go signal. I may never know the answer to this.

I will stick with the idea that Weather, Production and LNG exports have all shifted bullish enough to really influence the market. I am ever more supportive of the idea that October contract will get to $2.5 this week if production continues to disappoint.

I’ve been busy, and I’m out of time. I’m going to reduce UNL today by 10% to be left holding 50% of my funds in that. I’ll wait until market open to make this move. At $8.2, that account is back to where it started. All this time, and I’ve still not displayed the account well… I’m so busy… Barf!

UNL – 60% of funds in from $7.4 – planning to reduce down to 50% at market open

BOIL covered puts

BOIL covered puts as of 8/4/20

I’m going to publish this now and clean up my spreadsheet with my newest BOIL trade and then included it later. Aside from reducing UNL, I will be sitting tight with not other changes to my accounts. Good Luck