Morning Thoughts – Oldinvestor

KOLD and BOIL covered puts altered as of 7/21/20

The fundamental story is still the same. Waiting for LNG to get it together. Weather is helping, but it won’t be enough this year to keep prices propped up. Production creeping back in…

I’ve got a short amount of time to share my positioning with BOIL and KOLD. As for UNL, I”m still holding 80% long and waiting for something crazy to happen.

BOIL and KOLD covered puts as of 7/20/20
P/L as of 7/20/20

So I cleaned things up a bit; as good as I can do in 10 minutes. As of Monday at market close, I was behind roughly $178 loss. I’ve shown it swing to a profit a couple times, and $178 is not much of a loss.. Also Margin was less than $10,000 as of Monday.

So yesterday I bought back 10 shares of BOIL and I bought back the KOLD put. I don’t have a good way to reflect the 10 shares of BOIL covered in my spreadsheet, but it’s not so important. I’ve only saved myself $0.50 as of close Tuesday vs Monday. So the market bounced back just a bit, here is my current estimated Profit/Loss as of close Tuesday, you can add 50cents to this if you wish.

P/L as of 7/21/20

OK, here is the point. I”m going to make things even more hairy here.

profit/loss on 7/17/20
Projected profit/loss today if prices get back to what they were 7/17/20

OK… so if prices move back to what they were on 7/17/20, i would save myself about $23 by covering the 10 shares of BOIL, and $210 by covering the KOLD put (assuming the put premium value would go back to $4.7).

Something that isn’t worth it, Margin requirements for BOIL are now over $10,000 just for that 10 share adjustment. barf… KOLD margin requirements improved just a bit, but not enough to be a decision changing factor in my account.

Morale of the story here… I don’t know. Don’t cover 10 shares of a covered put. It isn’t going to make up for the headache in Margin. That BOIL trade was always intended to be a long term trade anyway, I’ll re-short the 10 shares today to get margin back down. But the KOLD position change has nice potential on a direction change in NG pricing. Granted, it may not happen this week. I think the adjustment in KOLD was a valuable one and I will hang with that for a week or so. If NG prices will spur a bit on any positive LNG sentiment, I’ll re-enter the KOLD put and stay the original path. Ok, it’s time to get to work. Hope this wasn’t too mixed up. Good Luck