Morning Thoughts – Oldinvestor

So I don’t have access to long term region production. I’m not sure of a source for that, but there is certainly a return to production. I’m guessing Permian is at the head of this list. If this is true, my theory about South Central storage is still a hazard. Permian sends a lot of gas in that direction; if it’s not getting used up by power burn and exports, it’s going into storage. No one else needs it right now.

Here we go, 10 mins ago

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-united-states-lng-exports/buyers-of-u-s-lng-keep-cancelling-cargoes-for-sept-sources-idUSKCN24M1AO

September cancellations. Check it out. Around 25 cancellations thus far; this is far better than 40-50. So if this number for September doesn’t grow, this could be a great sign for the LNG market. Prices could rebound quickly to $3, however Dec/Jan/Feb are already close to $3 for this reason. I’m certain I’m said this before, that South Central won’t reach max capacity, but it’s the looming threat. So timing is still important for LNG to get back online to prevent a potential freak out. This being said, I’ll wait until there is more confidence that LNG exports are on the recovery before switching back to UNG. I am interested in buying at this price, but would like to see if today tests new lows. Maybe I’ll get in with my last 20% of funds if today doesn’t see new lows.

My positions

UNL – 80% of my max comfort in with an average of $7.4 – waiting for $8 to even consider reducing

BOIL and KOLD covered puts.

as of close 7/20/20

As you can see, my KOLD position is feeling some pain. But it’s really not so bad if I count my previous premium collected.

overall KOLD covered call position

Some of this screen clip might not make sense, but I’m showing that with my previous premium collected, I can break even at $72.66 at expiration. I’m only $237 behind at this point with the put premium at $2.4. I’m thrilled with this. I could let the put expire and then just wait for a big move in KOLD and collect profits from $72 back down just on the change in share value. I could also cover my shares position in BOIL and keep my 90 strike put to move back the other direction as well right now. NO need to jump the gun, I’ll be watching this closely. My margin requirements will increase if I cover part of a trade on either of those scenarios. I don’t need to get in a bind from that. Best to wait until I think the market is trending in my favor. So far I’m waiting a bit longer; seems that’s all I do these days. It’s always a good time not to get in a rush to lose. Good Luck

Oldinvestor

As an important side note, I will be slowing down on my posts. I have a lot of life going on right now and I may have to change how I post or stop entirely. Time will tell and I will always be on Twitter for any question that anyone may have, no matter what happens in my work and personal time lines.