Morning Thoughts – Oldinvestor

I just realized (again) that the date is shown at the top of the post. ahhh geez. ok. It’s boring Friday! Not much has changed.

This is cool, in a couple of hours, Brynne Kelly is going to talk about using Fundamentals to trade commodities. She’s a Natgas guru, so they’ll probably talk about that to some degree. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WC9ANxuvMw. On youtube fo freee! Starts at 9am Est time.

I’m going to try and be there for that. I’ll be using my “Escape Autoworks” user name since that what I’ve been using youtube for.

Anyway, back to boring Friday. Production is still holding near lows, and power burn is showing strength still. I believe all eyes will be on LNG to see what happens in Europe. There has been some focus on Turkey expanding their natgas storage, and it sounds as though this could help the US exports. This deal with Turkey may have been planned with expansions that were already planned with US export facilities.

There are a lot of articles on this topic, this is a good read. You can google “turkey natural gas expansion” and click on news and get lots of articles.

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/turkeys-botas-total-ink-3-year-lng-contract

use this link for conversions from metric tons to Bcf and such: https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/wholefarm/html/c6-89.html

As for Europe, I’ve heard shit will hit the fan and then I’m seeing prices start to rise a little? Here’s some pretty good info on that front as well https://seekingalpha.com/article/4351490-lng-exports-and-european-inventories-what-is-going-on-and-what-means-for-u-s-natural-gas

My position

UNG – 60% in with an average of $11.73 with a limit to reduce to 40% holdings at $11.73

I’ll continue to hold long where I am. I would almost feel good about my position if I were only 40% in UNG right now. I’m beginning to get antsy. That’s just life for me though… Gotta be antsy about something, might as well be UNG. Things could be worse. I think UNG was around $19, and I’ve worked it around enough to even swing a little profit. By things being worsererer, I could have gone long on UGAZ at that same time around $110 and be at $14 something right now, barf! I’ll just be thankful that’s not me. I have the same limit to reduce my UNG position back to 40% holdings at $11.73, that is my only interest for today. Good luck

Oldinvestor