Morning Thoughts – Oldinvestor

May 28, 2020

Key factors mentioned the last couple of days are still key. Production is holding near recent low levels. LNG export feed gas has risen the last few days.

I don’t normally keep track of oil, but check in once and a while lately to see how I believe it might affect natgas. the EIA oil report is today (normally on Wednesday). The natgas report will refresh at normal time, 10:30 est, and oil 30 minutes after that. Oil is still has a stronger than normal grip on influencing NG pricing. My reason for looking at oil more closely today; API is showing big builds in oil storage yesterday? This just stirs the pot…

I put less stock in trading around EIA report time these days, but today pricing could bounce around just enough to initiate another purchase or sale of UNG. I’ve got a big day at work, so I hope I make it to the meeting.

My position – 40% in UNG with an average of $12.03 – limit order to reduce to 30% in at $12.3

I’m still interested in reducing at $12.3 on UNG back to 30% holdings. I’m also interested in adding, even right now at $11.6, but I’m going to wait. I suspect the price will slowly move up some before the report. Usually not buy maybe 15-20c on UNG. If UNG will near $11.4 during/after the report today, I’ll probably add to my position, bringing it back up to 50% in UNG. I can’t say I’ll add more than 10%, there is always tomorrow if it wants to fall. I also can’t say I will reduce beyond 30% yet. I want to give LNG a chance to come back online, though it is weak right now. Good luck today.