The Heller Angle – May 20, 2020

NGN20 July did another test of the level reaching a high of 2.028 but not quite getting to the 2.04 – 2.10 I was looking for. I see that area as congestion with the first test in mid March, testing again the first week of April before breaking through later. Looking at the chart again, I’m surprised I didn’t notice it before, there is a big candle reversal on April 27th where the low is 2.025. Instead of 2.04, which was the 200 day SMA, I am now going to use 2.025 as to where I’m trying to sell a call spread. Also the 200 day SMA has now moved down to 2.027 since then.

Honestly, I feel dumb that I missed this before but I would argue that if the market doesn’t make you feel dumb a few times each week, you might be doing something wrong. Obviously we’ve seen 3 tests of that level and today seems like a solid rejection.

So I’ve moved the limit price of my call spread (2.50×2.65) down slightly in hopes I catch it if we get another rally and test this Thursday or Friday.

Fundamentally, I think we should be rallying so I’m not sure why the reversal today. Weather overnight was slightly bearish but almost a nothing burger in my mind. Supply continues to come down, the latest report I’m seeing now is 87.0Bcf. The NG producers are on our side in that low prices delays completions to later this year, choking back where they can, delaying repairs and workovers if it doesn’t damage the well.

We received confirmation of this view with EQT shutting in 1.4Bcf per day confirmed by an SEC filing with ETRN.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3575651-equitrans-top-producer-customer-to-slash-natural-gas-output

Because I am still bullish and think this decline back below 1.90 is unjustified (1.885 low today so far, currently 1.911) I’m looking at selling another put spread. Same setup as before, 1.90 straddle is going for approximately 0.35 I want to sell at ~1.5x away (or 0.525) so I’m looking to sell the 1.40×1.25 for a credit of 0.011. After sitting between the bid of 0.010 and ask 0.012 for over 10 minutes, I moved my order to 0.010 for an instant fill.

In my first trade that I posted on our NGetf.com website, I accidentally only used 1 commission as I normally don’t do these calculations every time (oops sorry). This trade calculation is correct (thank you for the reader who pointed this out) $94 / $1406 is a return of 6.7%. Expiration is 36 days to go.

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