Morning Update – May 7, 2020

Well I don’t have a lot to say this morning. I did add 10% back to UNG yesterday, like a moth to the flame. I’m good with this choice.

Something that has my attention this morning; Shell sold gas leases to National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) for a bargain. Does this make NFG worth investing in? I have no idea. My mind is going in circles this morning with work.

Natgas. Supply is still slowly declining. Supposedly with more declines to come. Demand is also still on the decline as for what is immediately being reported; industrial leading the way down. I touched on this Monday? I think… Temperatures for the US got much closer to the norm in terms of HDDs. Demand took a sharp turn down with HDDS. Since then, the US has been unseasonably cold again, masking true demand numbers again.

I am constantly tormented by this market, why do I trade this thing? Low demand being masked by cold temps and the economy is supposed to be opening back up, but we know where this is going. Is there that much unrest in the country? Maybe we should have never shut down in the first place if we’re just going to half-ass shut down, and then start back up when at 3/4 the number of daily deaths. Get ready to wear a mask everywhere. I think that’s next. “Mask required” will be posted everywhere soon. I’m guessing governments don’t want to half shut down again, even when deaths start climbing again. This says to me that demand will pick back up some, but won’t be what it was before everything began on the decline. LNG will probably drop more but hopefully not below half of max capacity.

My positions:

UNG – 10% in with an average of $13.65

I”m tempted to dump UNG, but it’s only 10%, which is very manageable. I would sell calls against it if I had enough shares. It’s all good. I really feel like today is a good day to sit and wait. I need to get to work, that should clear my mind some. Good luck today


If you have to tell people how smart you are, maybe you should rethink how smart you are.