Morning Update – April 27, 2020

Capitalism is dead. We pay too much for houses, land, businesses. We operate purely on credit, and when shit starts failing, instead of operating on cash, just go get another loan. After all, the government will forgive it, and the rest of us will pay for it. Either that or inflation will keep the rich, rich, and the rest of us will continue to fall behind. Because this thing the government is doing is keeping houses, land, and businesses out of reach to common people.

Part of capitalism is taking the risk and failing. When someone fails, that opens the door to someone else. Presumably someone smarter, or possibly just more conservative with their money. The price of commercial property becomes a good enough deal that maybe I could buy some, in hopes to start a business. I’m not against government assistance, until I’m paying for a system that is just making it harder for me to start something of my own.

It’s happening all over again. Banks won’t be able to handle all the foreclosures, so they drag it out, never really allowing housing prices to fall back to reasonable levels, or bargain levels. This keeps prices far too elevated in order for the banks to recover their money faster because if the loan value never decreases, the loan will get paid in full by a new buyer, when the market doesn’t offer a better deal because everything is kept afloat. And they are using your tax money to do this.

Anyway, I’m buying UNG now, at $12.7

my positions:

UNG – 26% in with an average close to $13

USL – 13% in with an average of $11.41

I want to say we’ll see some production decreases soon; if not, I’ll slowly ride this down some more and add again. I’m slightly interested in UGAZ, but not going to do it yet. I’m still convinced Texas has too much natgas. We’ll know soon enough. I’m supportive that natgas will not go to $1.25 for now. The closer we get to summer and it remains colder than normal temperature wise, I start leaning toward a harsh winter. Solar minimums… Maybe global warming is real, but only able to warm the globe when we are burning 100MMbbls/day. Maybe the earth is more efficient at recovery than we give her credit for.

Did I mention I added to UNG, back to 26% in. I’ll add again if prices drop closer to $12. No target to exit yet. Good Luck


Keep an eye on this chart.

Natgas Inventory weekly change vs 5 year average