Morning Update – April 23, 2020

I think very few people know what to expect with Natgas production declines, or at least a timeline. Demand is still about the same, with industrial being the only category lower YoY. This is a bit surprising to me demand hasn’t fallen a bit more.

In times of high volatility, I feel positions should be kept smaller in order to keep the position well managed. This is one of those times and I like to think, though I’m down a bit, I’ve done a decent job managing my positions. I’ve altered my patience to finally hang on to a small position for a longer trend and it doesn’t come. Not yet anyway. That being said, I think it’s time to reduce UNG further. I’m seeing gains in UNG and I feel the need to capture some of it. I feel the market has decided this price is good enough without some real evidence of weakness in production. Well my time has come, I have a call now.

I’m reducing UNG back to 20% at $14.15

My positions:

UNG – now roughly 25% in with an average of $13.28

USL – roughly 13% in with an average of $11.41 (I mistakenly said $11.75 before?)

Yesterday I placed a stop on UNG at $13.3, I will do this again today. I’m feeling that curse, you know the one when you sell and the price rockets up. If UNG gets above $14.5 today I’ll reduce again, down to 15% and it $15 I’ll be out. I do not expect this nor do I have any plans to add to UNG or USL at this point. USL is in sit and wait mode, more or less. Good Luck