Morning Update – April 17, 2020

My current positions:

UNG – 36% of funds invested with an average of $13.28 – limit order to reduce to 31% at $13.28

USO – 10% of funds invested with an average of $4.64 – limit order to reduce to 5% at $4.64

I’m hearing a lot of shit talking going on in Twitter about people buying USO. These are people who’ve spent their lives trying to make a name in futures trading talking non-sense about people who’ve never spent a day in futures trading. They aren’t paying any attention to how ignorant they sound. There are a few intelligent comments by generally level headed individuals. These people might be slightly helpful to answer questions such as with trading futures. This is, I will continue to blog about ETFs.

It’s boring friday, production is still on it’s normal slow decline. There was what looked like a bump up in production, but right now it’s more about Canadian imports. Probably because the Northern US has been very cold and demand shot up, so Canadian imports were actually needed to keep up with regional demand. That will all change very soon and total US supply will decline again. There is a tweet that I don’t have access to right now, but I liked it this morning. I woman was mentioning all the reductions she knew about in the US with oil and total production. It is a good thread. I am suspecting the rise in Natgas pricing is due to a decline in production that I am unaware of thus far. I think enough time and gone by and the price has declined enough, there could be a surprise rise in Oil. I don’t know this for sure, and it’s a pure guess based on small declines in production I think are slowly ramping up into large declines in production. Before we know it the US oil market will be demanding more and production will be slow to increase again. This will be great for USO.

I will continue to hold 31% of UNG into next week unless the price reaches $14 today. I am very doubtful of this. Same with USO; even if 5% sells, I will be holding 5% into next week unless we see $5.5 to $6, and this is even less likely. Good Luck