Morning Update – March 23, 2020

More test = more cases… Imagine that, the US is in third now with number of cases. Beware of that kid that just got back from Florida. Italy is still damn near 10% deaths to number of cases? Maybe they are not testing enough. I’m really wondering if anyone is keeping track of number of positive/negative test results? That might indicate the number of cases is far greater and help the accuracy of how many actually have it that aren’t being tested.

Oh yeah, this is a blog about Natgas! Fine… Weather is bullish, but we don’t care… Oh yeah! HFIR tweeted all their demand charts last night on Twitter. That’s a good start. Demand on all levels is still very strong, especially Industrial and Power Burn. I think both of these will suffer some, yet I have no idea by how much. Industrial will be swayed by economic demand. Power burn will stay fairly strong, simply because the price of natgas is low and everyone who can, will be burning gas to generate electricity.

Production has remained steady from a few weeks ago. I mentioned a dip in production by about 1bcf/d. The dip occurred, then gas returned, and currently production is closer to the top of that scale. Over the next few months, production will slowly decline.

As for the immediate, “the virus,” and the economic impact is the big factor. To go along with this big scare, apparently there were/are some investment firms being forced to cover positions on both sides of natgas and oil.

Well I was going to buy another round, got called to a problem that should have been fixed by someone else on Friday, but they couldn’t find a cable that I located in about 2 mins. Come back to see “Fed announces limitless asset purchases”. Demand destruction panic is now be propped up and I will not be buying today. Well damnit…

Sit tight, wait for the next opportunity. I will be waiting today. No changes to my positions. Well, unless somehow there is a vaccine out of nowhere that is being used and things magically get back to normal by tomorrow? This news is a flash in the pan.