Morning Update March 17, 2020

Domestic demand is the near term question. I will be keeping an eye on demand in the coming weeks. Where I work, life is still going full speed. My company is consuming natgas at a similar rate as they generally do. As the coronavirus spreads, and panic spreads with it, governments and businesses will be cancelling events and even normal daily activities. The idea is, the more people stay at home, the less is getting done in the world and the less natgas is used. I am more focused on the US for the immediate.

It does seem production is holding for now. There has even been a slight increase, one that I would consider to be a normal fluctuation. Producers are going to produce just to pay the bills.

Weather, what’s that?

I’m holding my 35% of funds in UNG with an average of $14.24. I haven’t made any new plans to add to or reduce this position. I’ve been a bit busy, but I’ve also just been waiting for the next big move. With prices at this level and everything that is going on right now, a volatile move will occur soon enough. I use what I would call a “trade schedule”. I more or less use this to make sure I don’t buy too much too soon. As for entry, I’m looking for something else significant, and I will reference my trade schedule so that I don’t over play UNG. I am leaning bearish, but…. With current pricing this low and surprises happen all the time, I’m comfortable with holding my current position.

I’m still holding 2 shares of USO with an average of $6.59 and waiting for a surprise there as well.

About that trade schedule, I tried revamping it to share, and then go distracted by something else. I should get that built and share it. Be patient right now, it feels Natgas is waiting for something significant to make its next move. Good luck