Morning Update Feb 20, 2020

Well the power just went out for the entire plant….

Weather changes have been less volatile lately; also there is a good chance the forecasted cold spell will come to be this time. For the most part, this cold is already priced in. There really isn’t much more to say about it. Cold will help, but production has got to continue to decline and LNG has got to hang in there.

Monthly NG demand by Power burn at

I think my favorite Demand factor has been power burn, not because I’m an electrical guy. Power burn has provided consistent growth to NG demand every year far longer than LNG, and can be pretty well relied on. I always thought SWN or CHK should start a power plant in central Arkansas when the Fayetteville shale was booming. Now that gas is cheap and they can’t sell it, they could just supply it to their own power plants. Seems easy to me.

Speaking of power, it will most likely be restored soon, and I will busy as all hell. I’m going continue to hold my 75% of funds in UNG to reduced to 50% at $15.71. If prices turn back and fall from here, I’ll wait to add to my position. Probably closer to $14. Good luck today, EIA at 10:30 eastern time. HFI expected draw of 160.