Morning Update Feb 18, 2020

Holding strong. I’m paranoid as usual, but holding. Weather forecasts are still gifting us with one cold spell that is certain to happen. There is another cold spell that is being predicted. If the second cold spell follows through, this will change storage numbers in a significant way. Not enough to match the 5 year average, but maybe enough to play catch up a little.

Short positioning still seems to be the hot topic, especially since prices have bucked the trend.

managed money positioning at RonHenergy.com

I am not sure if I have mentioned in here, but I have been thinking about this. It is not necessarily the long positions wanting to bid up the price that will cause a big price move. For a while now, I’ve believe it is the short positions that will have to start covering to cause the price to really move back to say $2.5. This idea of capitulation is not a new one of course. It is well known; I believe it has just sunk in for me.

Something else that has sunk in is the coronavirus. The market does not care about it or the effects it is having on China. At least not until there is evidence that LNG is going to be adversely affected. I made a mistake by reducing early, one I’ll do my best not to do again. LNG may have trouble in the near futures, but my current position is flexible enough to deal with that.

As for my position. I believe I’ll place a stop on 33% of my position; this would be roughly 25% of my funds. Stop price will be $14.66. I want to stop out if NGJ20 is going to move below $1.90. This may be a bit low, but that would seem to be a clear reversal to me. I will also reduce back to 50% holdings if UNG gets to $15.71. $15.71 is my adjusted average based on the sheet I need to get published. It seems this target could be reached today. Good Luck

Oldinvestor