Random Update/Thoughts

I just got to read my first email from a reader! How exciting. I am thankful for all the feedback I’ve gotten on Twitter, and now my first email.

To be blunt? This week has kinda sucked. I work full time, have a full time family (Whom I’m am grateful for and love very much). Sometimes life is just chaotic, and the challenge becomes more than we can keep pinned down. I’ll get ahead of it again, like now!

The market. What is up with this natgas market? From a storage/supply/demand perspective, I have no idea. There is so much that can be considered late bloom, then there are those moments you want to take a risk. Is now the time? I know that makes no sense

Storage is always a major focus, well….

NG storage vs 5 year average at RonHenergy.com

Storage doesn’t look all that out of control vs previous years in comparison to the 5 year average. I don’t need to post the pricing to compare each year to each year of storage here. Storage is not the problem, obviously. So production?

Production stats by Bluegold Research in a free article

Bluegold posted about the time I started my post so it’s recent data. The above chart shows the recent declines in production. I’ve been looking at this same stat as year-over-year chart; the continuous chart looks much more defined (if that’s the right word). There has been quite the fall in production from the peak of total dry gas production.

Production was my main focus the last couple of months. It is hard to say that production is going to continue this down trend. Reading “reductions in CapEx” a number of times has given me the impression that natgas production is all but done growing for now.

So if production really is on the decline and storage isn’t really that bad out of skew from the 5 year average, why are prices falling? My main concern is LNG exports, as mentioned in this morning’s post. Outside of that, it must be a self fulfilling chart prophecy reflection of 2015/16.

Either way, I’m going to continue on the long side of this. I will soon post my history of UNG trades and my strategy going forward. I hope everyone has a safe and fun weekend. Go Chiefs!


Leave a Reply