Morning Update Jan 8, 2020

My mind is not here, it is in a UGAZ short strategy. Anyway, not a lot has changed fundamentally. The weather predictions is trying to give hope to the idea colder than normal weather is coming, but we’ll see…. Something stands out to me right now is the slow move up.

NG1 on 2 hr chart at Tradingview.com

The chart is moving up at a slower pace than the previous failures to breakout. At the upper left of the screenshot, there is an upward sloping line. The price breaks away from that line and goes up too fast. It is common to see this and see a snap back, such as all the candles that are straight up and come straight back down on the very next candle. Same with the many candles that moves straight down and soon move straight back up. So this upward movement could be a sign of strength. I will remain paranoid, but excited all the same.

The market is still much oversupplied, with production still relatively flat for now and demand doing what it does every year, not quite enough to impress. I believe weather will become increasingly important the next few days. Weather… Important… phsssss. I am for real. The forecast is showing cold, but it’s a tease (11-15 days away). If it sticks, NG prices will continue to rise. However, any drop in HDDs and prices retract the same as they have. I’ll remain long and reduce at my average, now to that.

Yesterday I had a limit order to buy more UNG with 10% of my funds at $16.3. I looked at webull later and the chart showed a bottom of $16.31. Well, the order took at $16.3 and I’m now 50% in UNG with an average of $16.95. I don’t like this because if you were to have the same order in to paper trade, the order would not have filled. It is what it is. I’m still on the same path. I will place an order to reduce at my average. I want to be back to 30% of my funds in UNG. So I am placing a limit order to sell 40% of my UNG position (equal to roughly 20% of my funds) at $16.95. Beyond that, I know I want at least $17.5 to sell any more. It is too soon for me to place a target on selling more. I’m almost always early.

Oldinvestor