Morning Update Jan 7, 2020

Nothing much to report this morning.

DCOT for NG week of Dec 31, 2019 at

My favorite topic, managed money position came out yesterday afternoon. Long positions are still building, short positions are mostly holding. There is still great potential for pricing to hang out where it is (because fundamentals are sucking and short positioning can’t drive it down much further. Longs are building instead of reducing, therefore prices are hard pressed to fall further). Weather is not being helpful as usual. The latest forecast took a bearish step in that dance it does, mostly 11-15 days away.

NG1 on 2hr chart at

As for the chart. It looks like pricing is at a crossroads again. It gives me the feeling the market wants to test 2.08 again. Maybe I’ll get to add to my position today. I’ve considered switching to 5% layers, where I add every 5%, but this usually doesn’t work out all that well. It doesn’t average down my break-even price, and it doesn’t make much if I sell a 5% layer on a quick gain. Best just to be patient.

So I’m still holding 40% of funds in UNG with an average of $17.12. I have an order in to buy with 10% of funds at $16.3, I want to be patient with the other 10%. I believe the price will drop further today. I would rather be a little more miserly? here, and wait on the other 10% to see if I can get a better deal. It is looking like I won’t be able to get my $16.3 right now. The whole day is still before me.


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