What we know
- Production is has weakened at least for now
- Currently it is cold out, raising HDD
- The forecast isn’t showing cold coming in the near future
- Managed Money remains at record short positioning
I believe these would be the key elements to start this week off. This is not so different that any other week. If production strengthens, the price should drop; if the weather forecast turns colder, the price should rise. These variable, to me, make it difficult to have confidence in a direction.
The chart isn’t helping. Pricing is at a crossroads here. It would appear that pricing should break out here in either direction. I lean bullish due to pricing and weakness in production. I’m not yet willing to buy anything based on that feeling. I will remain out and wait to see what happens today.