Wowsers, what a drop. So if I were to sell my UNG position now, I would be wiping out the last gain I retained in my example account. I need a better name for that account, like the millionaire’s account?
First up, I took a mini NG position last night as soon as the market opened. I bought 1 QGF20 at $2.195 and 1 at $2.21. I have a stop in place at $2.19 because that is slightly below the small support line I’ve draw at $2.21.
I cannot say with any confidence that this is a turn in the market. There will be plenty of time to take a position in UNG if it looks like the right time to take it. I am a bit scatter brained, so I may miss it. That 2 hour chart above has not moved yet. Maybe in the next 2 hours. I will be holding the 9% UNG that I already have. I feel I will work out of it, but now it will be much harder to make much of a profit. We’ve learned why it is not always a good idea to take a position heading into the weekend. I took a chance and it didn’t pay, the reason for the small position.
Daily chart looks good so far, but it has been preached to wait until the candle is finished and closes. Right now, today’s candle is looking like a hammer, which is a good sign, but it must hold up. I’m guessing managed money positioning will not have changed a lot due to gap down. The value of the contract changed suddenly but not a lot of contracts have traded, yet anyway. The day is just starting.
Weather is not supportive of much of anything right now. If anything, a lot of longs got excited and that excitement got shot in the foot over the weekend.
bottom line… I’ll be watching when I can to see if we break upward. If you feel you must enter here, I’m still sticking with UNG. In the past I would have said this price is relatively safe, and just enter now. I think I’ve hammered enough that it hasn’t been confirmed yet. I’ll post to twitter as soon as I feel confident. Should happen by 9am Est. The market is generally ready by then to give us a sign. This morning’s post is a bit sloppy, but I feel a bit rushed. All the more reason to be patient.