Morning Update Dec 5, 2019

Thursday and lost once again. I’ve gotten to where I don’t like EIA report days. The market waits for that one moment and acts irrationally, sometimes for the rest of the week.

Be wary of the GFS forecast. GFS and ECMWF are in total disagreement where it matters most (11 – 15 days). Prices appear to be in a wedging pattern, but is in no mans land. I suspect today prices will creep slightly higher in anticipation of today’s EIA report. After that, you’re on your own. Even if we break higher, I’m skeptical.

NGF20 – Dec 5, 2019 – 2hr chart at

I plan to wait today. I’m paranoid and certainly not going long right now. I shared this next chart on Twitter yesterday.

Weekly difference in storage build/draw compared to 5 year average weekly build/draw

This is an amazing chart in itself. It shows us how weekly storage changes in comparison to the 5 year average. It shows how much more gas has gone into storage all year vs what would be the 5 year average. 2019 in the last few weeks have dropped below the 5 yr due to cold weather. Genuinely cold weather cannot last all winter season.

The reason for pounding my head against the wall with the oversupply is to make you aware that are most likely pricing is not going back to $3. If they do, it will be a great place to short unless the blizzard of the century is upon us or something drastic happens to the supply.

As for today, I’m going to sit back and enjoy the show. I do hope we go up today and maybe next week so I can take on a bigger short position.


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