First up, I put 9% of my funds in UNG late yesterday (posted on twitter when I made the trade) and I’m glad I did, looks like we have a little breathing room this morning. A stop right now would be back at my entry of $17.92.
So weather does not always set the tone, but this time I believe it has. Of course it would not have been possible without managed money positioning and price where they currently set.
Managed Money is showing a substantial increases in short positioning. This data shown only runs through Tuesday Nov 19, 2019, the report may have not been updated this last Friday. This leaves me to assume that positioning has swung much further to the short side, leaving the door open to a rebound in pricing.
The chart is showing what seems to be a clear signal that the market wants to go up from here. There is still room to get in UNG or possibly even UGAZ if you must.
Back to weather; both forecasts are showing a bit of cold coming in to the right locations to make for higher HDDs. Both weather models are in agreement as of right now, so all is well for the next 10 minutes anyway 😉
I’m still not so good at picking how far the price can travel, my guess is between $2.5 and $2.56 on Jan contract. This would be around $19.2 and $19.7 on UNG. I’ll be content with $19.2. Again, I’m keeping my stop at $17.92 for now