Morning Update, Nov 21, 2019

Thursdays are always a hard call. I’ve not been so in-tune with the market this week. This should improve by Monday.

What we have:

  • Weather: GFS forecast is showing consistent below average temperatures, but ECMWF again disagrees
  • Demand is strong currently but without below normal temps, storage will remain on average
  • Production is flattening out some but still pointing up
  • Short positioning once again has some room to drive the market

Lets look at the chart.

NGZ19, Nov 21, 2019 on Daily at

This would be an area I’m not too sure about. I want to say we are getting set up for a rough ride. If I had to choose, stay short on this. Price is right at resistance and it hasn’t close above that line. Stay short and possibly place a stop no in the $2.6 area for Dec contract. I’m going to sit out for the report today.


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