Morning Update Nov 15, 2019

NGZ19 Nov 15, 2019 1hr chart, source: Tradingview.com

It’s Friday! Boring Friday… I’ve shared 1hr chart with one idea, Dec gas price snapped out of the down trend into this slightly range bound channel. The reality here is, I don’t have a clue once it breaks from one of these channels. I’m still leaning bear, I’d like to see the price meet the upper line and if it bounces off, go short. If the price falls today and breaks the lower line, might go short, but keep it small and don’t be surprised if you get a lot of turbulence on the way to $2.5. JDGPRO on Tradingview shared a head and shoulders pattern (when you zoom out a bit) that fits with my lower line of support. This would reinforce my breakdown theory. I’m looking for a short, but will be waiting for long potential closer to the lows we’ve already seen.

As for fundamentals No significant changes in weather, or Supply/Demand at least on the large scale that I can see. Broken record tells us the market is still very oversupplied.

The only bright start still is LNG growth, which on a macro scale is about to fizzle out as well. I’ve been seeing snippets of news about the global LNG stage reaching a point of oversupply. Time will tell and maybe a little research is needed here. For example, just searched google for LNG oversupply and here is an article from NGI (Natural Gas Intel). This article talks about LNG on the global scale. It’s a bit lengthy for just a morning skim. Save it for when you have time to focus. Plenty of good details worth hearing.

I normally end with my positioning and expectations for a trade. I pretty much covered that above. I’ve got a lot of work to do with the day job, and this week has been good to me. I’ll mostly likely end the day where I’m at, waiting for next week to begin. Hope everyone has a tolerable to exceptional weekend.

Oldinvestor