Morning Update Nov 12, 2019

Stay the course

GFS Ensemble Nov 12, 2019 6hour from tropicaltidbits.com

This is the current forecast 6 hours from now. We see the lines move up under AK (Alaska) and the down across the midwest and sharply swoop down into the Northeastern US. This is the perfect pattern for a spike in NG demand. Since this is the forecast for 6 hours from now, it’s pretty much guaranteed to happen. I believe in 10 day forecast, beyond that it’s an educated guess, but still about as much a guess as truth.

GFS Ensemble Nov 12, 2019 120hour from tropicaltidbits.com

This is the 120 hour or 5 days out, you can see the lines are flattening out and no more cold being slung down into the Northeastern US. So cold temps in high population areas will subside, people will not burn as much gas to stay warm and consumption that had skyrocketed will drop back to about average use.

NGZ19 Nov 12, 2019 on Street Smart Central (Schwab app)

I should confess I was looking at NG1 and thinking gas had a ways to go before reaching the 20EMA. Looking at Dec contract without the influence of NG1, the price has already crossed 20 EMA and touched the 50MA on the daily chart. Being that I’m a bit green to technicals, I will look into further the use of NG1, which shows Nov contract until expiration, then Dec. For now I’m going to stick with displaying each contract and not use NG1 for short term technicals.

Moving on… the 2hr chart is showing some strength. I’d say the market has another hour to wake up and really give us a direction. I believe overall the price of NG will continue down this week, but not at the same pace as yesterday. There will be some bumps along the way, as normally is the case. The NG market is still far over supplied, weather forecasts haven’t given a signal to get excited, and the trend is simply down right now. I remain with 3.5% of my funds in DGAZ with a stop at $105. I think this is a bit close, but I don’t want to lose that profit so $105 it shall remain.

Oldinvestor

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