All out and testing the reversion waters

NGZ19 Oct 29, 2019

Yesterday I finally capitalized on all the scrapes made with $UNG. Content with adding more than 1% to my account, I exited all positions. Today I’ve gone 3% in $DGAZ at $112.75 with 1% added around $107.65, up for sale $1 higher, I may go into tomorrow at 3% or 4% in DGAZ.

As for what NG will do the rest of the week. I’m only 3-4% in DGAZ because my strong paranoia of $3 gas. Looks like DGAZ shot past 108.65, back to 3% in. Anyway, WX should get the credit for this run or at least for getting it kicked off. Short positioning among market movers should get the credit for the big move. It has turned winter on us and looks to be in the mood to stick around at least another week. Not only that, but HDDs are going to spike because the cold is going to land well within the Northwest, creating what we want, major NG demand increases. Moving into winter, all other factors become pointless to point out. It is now all weather driven demand vs production increases. Being that short positioning has been so extreme (really high) and price extremes (so low), this does play a factor in boosting this swing. So why didn’t I stay long, hell, I don’t know. Further more I should not have gotten in DGAZ yet. So be it. 3% here we go. I’ve gotten my average down to about $111, we’ll go with that.

NG does appear to be on target for 200MA, that’s about all I’ve got. Other than the big shift in cold to hit high demand areas of the US, I’ll go with not much as changed. I fully expect to see some pullback here, maybe even this week. November contract expires today so tomorrow and thursday will be as unpredictable as ever.

Correction, DGAZ went up, I’m out again… Thanks for playing

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