To break away or not to bre… forget it

NGZ19 on morning Oct 16, 2019

And that’s why I’m in $UNG. We didn’t break down the support zone I last posted. At the time I didn’t have a upward range. Seems to be all about the moving averages today. 20EMA has been passed up, 50 and 75 SMA are converging (which means nothing to me), and are the next area of resistance. My Fibo placement is still from late Aug to mid Sept. That should be updated coming down, not going up.

Updated Fibonacci

Alright; with Fibo updated, not much has changed. Resistance here is strong, waiting to see if we break through. of course I’ve layered out some already with the hopes we get to 20.5 today on UNG and I can dump most of the rest. If we break down here, I’m now with 24% of my funds in UNG; I’d say I’m positioned well. i can always dump at even if we break down.

Bullish indicators:

  • Short positioning almost hit the peak we were at 2 months ago
  • Price is super low!
  • Bounced right off of support area
  • That unpredictable bitch, Mother Nature showed up with a lot of TDDs

Bearish indicators:

  • Technically we face resistance…
  • The market is Hurculeanly oversupplied
NG1 on morning Oct 16, 2019

Last shot here, NG1 continuous chart; we’ve broken through 20EMA, 50 SMA and face 75SMA and 38% Fibo retracement very soon. This is not so far off from Dec contract. My thoughts on all this does not change looking from one chart to the other. I’m torn here, technically we face resistance, while weather is super bullish. It is Wednesday (which in a bullish week, is bullish more than not), we have momentum at our backs and it’s gonna be cold.

With all that said, I want to say today we go one more leg higher, at least test a new high for the week. If we break through today and EIA doesn’t smash our hopes and dreams tomorrow, we may run on up. Oh, and those weather predictors must remain cold. With short covering being a potential, the chances are actually good that if we break out here, we take off like a rocket. I’m not good at picking a target, but I’d say these moving averages could be good indicators of the breakout and moving on up to 120SMA (2.63ish December).

May it be a wonderful Wednesday. Cheers!

Oldinvestor