Doing my best to muck up this chart. Technical analysis is not my strong point, but I am learning slowly. Seems like I successfully called for a bear flag last week, week before? Would you look at that…. A bear flag. So for my further bearish argument I have an if. I have drawn all over this Dec contract chart and decided that IF we break down either today or next week from the current price of…. 2.41ish, then weak support may exist around 2.34. Once the price smashed through that number next week we head straight for 2.20 – 2.23. Granted, we head down quickly and catch up to lower BB while running into major trendline down around that area.
That being said, I’m now 33% or so in $UNG and will remain so with an average just below $20. I have a bad habit of falling knives and such around this time of year. I like to think I’m still doing it wrong, I’m just wearing thicker gloves this go around. In years past I’d have been all in and squirming, looking for a way out, not wanting to take a major loss and eventually doing so. I’m all of 2.1% or so down on my account today, I’ll take it for now.
That being said, what’s to turn this thing and make it go up? Hell if I know…
What we do know:
- The price is pretty low, but has a couple legs left
- Managed money positions are approaching record shorts again for the year (short sided positions are quick to cover)
- Producers have already said they are cutting back on new activities (hearing little bits all this year)
- Long term weather is UNPREDICTABLE!
- NG even in 2015 is full of bear flags to scrape a little in and keep averages low
- UNG never recovers from Oct 2015 prices, but if kept manageable, can be easily worked out of.
- UGAZ decays into oblivion, unless you plan to roll it around a lot, just don’t, not yet…
I’ve been sick with what seems to be a cold forever now, beginning to think it’s Mononucleosis. To my 0 readers so far, I’m sorry I haven’t posted much as of yet, also for the low quality of this post. I reserve the right to be completely wrong and talk in circles. Have a great weekend.