Account Update

my positions, roughly an hour after market open 5/4/21

The force is not with me today. DBX is in free fall. I would imagine there are many traders nervous about the upcoming earning report. I’m still holding.

Update on holdings

I’ve reduced UNL and gone heavy on my BOIL short.

holdings as of pre-market 4/28/21

By heavy, I mean I’ve sold a second share and I’m not holding onto my 10 to 1 ration of UNL shares to compensate. My balance looks good, so I’m going to keep this current ratio of long/short positioning until the market comes back down some and I can start buying UNL again.

That’s it for UNL/BOIL. I’m considering a covered call in this account. The account balance is about right to open up a new position in SLB. I’ve been thinking about it for a while, and I’ve decided to sell a covered call against DBX (Dropbox). Holy crap, 4% on a 10 day ATM trade. I’ll take that chance.

chart of DBX on 4/28/21 at Tradingview.com

So I’ve been using this for a lot of entries lately. But it’s hard to make mistakes when everything is going up, all the damn time. With that said; DBX is at the lower end of an upward channel, possibly crossing above 20MA today. I’m going to go ahead and pull the trigger on this trade and hope that I’m not ignoring something important within DBX.

I’m going to buy 100 shares and sell an ATM call 10 days out (5/7/21 expiration). That expiration date is a day after earnings. I can always get out any time before earnings.

5/7/21 covered calls against DBX, using StreetSmartCentral.com (web application by Charles Schwab)

Check back later or tomorrow for my entry. Good Luck

Oldinvestor

updated positions with DBX included

Another progress report

First, I’ve located a screenshot from when my balance is within 2 cents of my current balance. This was most likely pre-market 3/2/21, with a balance of $2605.65. I was still holding UNG short.

My positions and balance on 3/2/21

Since then, I’ve made 4 trades. Also, it seems I have paid a Hard-to-Borrow fee. Well, I actually incurred the fee the day before the screenshot above, so it doesn’t count, but I’ll leave it to show the fee associated with my BOIL/UNG short. The balances shown, would be the cash balance in the account without the holdings included.

Now my current balance and holdings as of this morning, 4/19/21.

My positions as of pre-market 4/19/21

Well, a moment ago my balance was $2605.63…. of course. Anyway, I’ve ridden through another dip in the gas market. BOIL and UNL currently at a gain, but the market isn’t quite as high priced as before, so it’s not quite a direct comparison. Close enough to mention, and decay seems to be on my side. I just need to increase my holdings to boost efficiency of this trade. That’s it for now. If the market moves much higher, I’ll reduce UNL by 10 shares again. Good Luck

Oldinvestor

Reduced UNL to 40 shares

I’ve reduced UNL to 40 shares total from 50 shares; still holding 1 share of BOIL short.

my positions pre-market 4/14/21

I actually put the order in yesterday at 8.04 and it went through. I did hear of a 1Bcf/d disruption in Appalachia that may be responsible for gas moving higher. I’m sure that will be resolved quick enough. good luck

Oldinvestor

Article worth looking at

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/041221-flaring-reductions-rising-gors-support-2021-rebound-in-us-gas-production

The opening statement says it all, with the words “unexpected volume growth from the associated gas basins.” This means expect oil output to rise, and gas output to rise with it.

Oil and natgas prices are up this morning. I may choose to reduce UNL by another 10 shares if prices move much higher. Production is going to grow. I’m not even close to “in the know” about pipelines… Last I heard, there was at least one pipeline that was going to open up regional pricing to carry away more gas from the Permian basin. This would fall in line with what the article I’ve shared now is saying. Permian is flaring less, meaning more gas is being put into the pipeline. This could be due to the lack of wells that have been completed over the last year. Which could lead to lower production numbers, and more gas that was being flared is now being put into a pipeline. It also could be due to more pipeline capacity, which I do know of one, if need to look it up I can.

Gotta remember that regional prices, such as Waha, were lower than Henry Hub for quite some time, causing more gas to be flared. They simply didn’t have the capacity to carry it away; now they have more capacity, price may not even be a factor… If oil is high enough, the gas will simply go into the pipeline because no one wants to see it wasted regardless. Also there may be incentives from the federal government to get it sent down stream vs flare it. Production is going to rise, keeping NYMEX prices below $3.

I personally think $2.75/mmbtu is the new $3. Good Luck

Oldinvestor