Morning Thoughts – Not sure

I noticed yesterday I named the title “holding”. Now I realize I didn’t just hold. I didn’t even say I was holding, I made some changes. Maybe I’m spread a bit thin these days. Part of my reasoning for trying some actual long term positions.

My positions as of pre-market 1/27/21

on with it then…

I added to EOG by 1 share, reduced UNL by 25 shares at $8.1. Then I also added 4 REITs to my positions. It appears only my utilities and 1 REIT are in the green. Barf.

On to Gas… Weather is doing what weather does, swinging back and forth between warmer and colder than normal. I keep seeing missed chances to play UNG or even BOIL/KOLD on these swings. I even have confidence the market isn’t going to go for another huge tumble from here. I’ll will keep a closer eye on this now that I’ve filled the boat with a bunch of equities. All in all, gas is going nowhere, production isn’t really budging, as if producers can afford current pricing. I have heard a lot of news of cutting CAPEX. In fact, drilling activity has increased slightly.

The EIA Drilling report (https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/dpr-full.pdf) reflects this slight increase. Granted, I would think rig counts are too low to maintain the level of production that is currently flowing. With so many DUCs, it’s hard to tell. Of course, also on the EIA drilling page, there is a DUC supplement to the report, and a quick glace shows DUCs are on a sharp decline.

DUCs by region and the monthly change

This shows that many more wells are being completed that new wells being drilled… I need to see if Ron H. has any charts for the history of drilling and completions. It could be good info to have in order to establish a stance on production in the months to come.

history of DUCs by region at RonHenergy.com

well that was easy… RonH has DUC counts, now if I can find rig counts. I’ll have to ask about this… plus each region produces different amounts of gas, so they will effect the market a little different. This means I would still just be a guessing at best. I’m running out of time.

Drilling doesn’t really mean shit. You want to know how many wells were completed in each region, and the average size of these wells in each region. You also want to know the rate of decline per well so you can estimate how many new wells need to be brought online in order to simply maintain production. Then you can guess as to whether or not production will continue or fall as current well production declines and new wells are or are not being completed and brought online fast enough to maintain the status quo. My guess, without all the data, is that production will be on the decline. It’s more a matter of time. There are still plenty of DUCs for producers to complete and have access to new gas production, but most companies have cut back so much for so long now, we should start seeing cracks in the future of production. If LNG demand continues as this pace, eventually I should be all-in UNL. But when?

For now I’m going to sit tight and search for the data I need in the mean time.

I’m getting pestered about things no one can figure out.

Natgas surplus to the 5 year average at EIA Natgas Storage Dashboard

Good luck

Oldinvestor

Morning Thoughts – holding

My positions as of pre-market 1/26/21

So my utilities are seeing green while everything else is still down. EOG being the worst due to a small panic sell over the Government ceasing to issue permits to drill on federal lands. As if EOG will not be so greatly affected by this. I’m going to add 1 share of EOG to my positions today once the market opens. The rest will remain the same.

As for UNG/UNL, I’ll also keep these positions the same for now.

My positions on 1/6/21

This is the screenshot from when I originally shorted UNG. I’ve improved on UNL by adding 25 shares. Otherwise, there hasn’t been enough decay/change between UNG/UNL to speak of yet. It is just going to take a while for that trade to show what it’s worth. Though trading around a core position will mess with the original numbers, I’m not going to pass up what I think is an opportunity to manage the trade for better positioning. I’m still talking about adding the 25 shares to UNL at $7.9/share. If UNL gets into the green today, I’ll reduce that position back to 50 shares total.

My focus today:

add 1 share to EOG

reduce UNL back to 50 shares total above $8.10/share

One more thing – I’m adding in 4 REITs – SPG, SRC, O, WPC

What am I doing dealing with REITs? It seems like I’m very late to that party, but I like the idea and it’s only 4 shares, so I’m going to add 1 of each and see how that goes. Look for these changes to be posted tomorrow. Good Luck

Oldinvestor

Morning Thoughts – Everything is down

My positions as of 10:15am eastern time

Off to a weak start with my positions… As usual. These positions are long term, I have not yet taken the time to determine if I want to add to any of these positions. I think I will let this week finish out to see where things are heading before I get too anxious to buy more.

I did add AM to the list. I also added some utilities. FE, ETR, and PPL. I am also adding to my UNL position by 25 shares. I think that should do enough damage for now.

I’ll continue to hold UNG short for curiosity sake. It is at a nice gain, but I want to hold and see how it goes longer term vs UNL.

The EIA report is tomorrow due to the inauguration. Sorry for keeping it so short. Good Luck

Oldinvestor

Morning Thoughts – get caught up

Well it’s been a while since I posted. And… I bought a few stocks.

My positions as of pre-market 1/19/2021

I bought 1 share of each company listed in the image above last week. It’s really not a big deal that I did not share these trades immediately here, as there is plenty of time to become interested in each if you have not heard of any of them and would like to read about any. I honestly can’t remember why I bought a couple, other than they were mentioned to me by a trusted friend, and that was quite a while back (8 months maybe?). Everything has changed 5 times since then.

I will say I like CQP, SLB, EOG, and AR the best; in that order. CQP currently 6+% annualized dividends, and they have got to be making some serious money exporting LNG right now. SLB because they are one of the most solid companies that exist in the Oil/Gas industry and they are more flexible as most of their money is made on man power. I hate it for their employees, but SLB can simply lay off thousands and cut pay back to minimums to cut costs drastically. They drop Revenue of over $2B in Q2 2020, and Net income is only -$10M. I just like to think SLB is already well down their path of recovery, while their stock price sits well under what it could be a year from now.

EOG is just another big shale player with 2 tons of cash as well as actually generating a profit in the last two quarters as well. EOG to me is more of a balanced trade; some dividends, some growth, some stability. I don’t have time to put numbers to paper on any of these stocks, and frankly I haven’t thought about it as in depth as I should if I were to advise anyone. Good thing I’m not doing that….

As for AR, they were well under-priced, which I think is still true. This reminds me, I will be buying AM today, their dividends are 14% right now with the same growth potential as AR. AM seems to look even better to me. But these are relatively small companies that have weathered this last pricing storm well and feel well worth a small bet.

As for EQT and SBOW, I don’t even remember, but it’s 1 share! I’ll cut it off if they slide too far. EQT is off to the best start, so I’ll certainly hang on to that one.

All these picks are my opinions, not recommendations. You could shoot lots of holes in my statements above. If you’re thinking I’ve got some good one’s here, thanks. If you thinking I’m an idiot, maybe you should go start your own website. I don’t know where that came from…

So gas is doing it’s normal thing… Weak winter weather=weak winter demand, so it’s up to weak production and strong LNG to keep prices afloat. Storage continues to be a 200Bcf surplus to the 5 year average with no hope of catching up this winter. There is the idea that it happens this coming summer. That’s too far down the road for me to think about. So I will continue to hold were I am with UNL/UNG. I still like that positioning where it is and would like to see if there is any chance of both positions will turn green, or at least UNL to keep climbing higher. We shall see. Good Luck

Oldinvestor

Morning Thoughts – Holding

My positions as of per-market 1/12/2021

I’m still holding slightly long with 50 shares of UNL and short 10 UNG. My account isn’t really moving much. I want to hold these positions where they are for at least another week. I’m not sure what yesterday’s move was all about. I don’t really think it was weather… It feels like the market is about to go for a long, bumpy ride higher. I’m not certain of this, which is why I’ll be holding where I am currently positioned.

I will post anything that stands out in my pea brain. Right now, I’m waiting for any strong evidence worth mentioning. Good Luck

Oldinvestor