Morning Update March 16, 2020

Though still trending down, production is showing to be up a little to start the week. Coronavirus is taking its toll on the market again. TVIX showing a premarket high around $550ish. My example account is back in the red by almost 1%. But it feels good to be at 30% long, in UNG and waiting for another bargain.

I’ve lost access to my Tradingview account from work, it is a sad time for me. Everything is down right now. S&P, Oil, Gas, Silver/Gold. All down by hysterical numbers. I would say start buying SPXL, but it still feels too soon. Maybe when this…. let’s see here….

Daily new cases of Coronavirus world wide found at WorldoMeters.info

Maybe when this starts declining. As it seems right now. Italy is doing their best to keep everyone inside, and they are still growing. The above chart and most other data on daily updates can be found here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

Here is daily deaths. This is probably the more important chart. I think this one is a bit exaggerated because some data that may not have been reported over the weekend. It is possible this is because the virus is finally becoming a real problem in many more countries. The website has a table that has new cases and deaths, by country here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ .

Daily death rate of Coronavirus world wide found at WorldoMeters.info

I’m really only seeing the top 7 or so countries with a substantial number of deaths or even new cases in the 100s. I have heard a lot, and asked one healthcare professional about the tests. Unlike the flu or Streptocol something or other (strep throat), there hasn’t been a lot of quick tests made for the coronavirus yet. So most testing that I know of is being sent to a major lab in each state. This means a ton of people who even exhibit symptoms are not being tested. I think it is clear these types of quick tests are being developed and distributed, but it takes longer than a week to develop, test, adjust for new strains, manufacture, and deliver this type of test.

Because of these setbacks, and inability to test, the spread has got to be far greater than what has been recorded.

I guess my point is, as long as we aren’t testing everyone, the number of undetected cases will continue to rise. Don’t forget, humans get complacent quickly; therefore, the number of deaths will continue to rise and every one of those bodies will be tested. This will continue to skew the stats of a crazy high death rate and continue to freak people out.

Anyway, back to gas. The impact of the market mentality is dragging everything down.

As stated above, I’m still perched at closer to 29% long in UNG with an average of $14.34. I’m itching to buy. NGK20 contract near $1.82, which is pretty awesome. Also there is support around this area over the last week. I think I’ll buy with 5%-6% of funds. I am also holding 1 share of USO from $7.03, which is 0.7% of my account.

I’m adding to my UNG position at $13.89, which puts me at 35.5% in UNG. I’m also buying 1 more share of USO at $6.14, which is now roughly 1.3% of my account.

UNG average = $14.24

USO average = $6.59

Good Luck

Oldinvestor