Morning Update Feb 7, 2020

I missed by 11 cents? Something like that, I wasn’t able to enter UGAZ and go for another ride. Had I been watching the market I would have gotten in at least at $44. One of these days trading will be my day job.

On with today… Weather forecasts have been pretty volatile from one forecast to the next lately. From yesterday afternoon to this morning, the ECMWF has had little change HDD wise. The big difference is between the ECM and GFS models. I normally don’t think too much about these differences. I’m just watchful of disappointment. There’s always plenty of that to be had.

Production is showing a major drop, 1.5 – 2 Bcf/d kinda drop. Which if that were to stay true, the market would flip to being under supplied. My guess is there is either freeze ups in the northern US, or maintenance going on at a larger pipeline location, restricting flow. Either way, production will return to the norm soon enough, I’m sure.

NGH20 on 2 hr chart at Tradingview.com

Still range bound on the chart, but we have higher highs and higher lows showing. This is a good sign, but today must hold above $1.84ish for March contract for this trend to continue.

I am going to go ahead with 1 share or roughly 4% of funds and buy UGAZ at $45.13. I’ll go ahead and place an order to sell this at $47.2. I might be interested in buying 1 more share of UGAZ at the end of the day. I would like to see how the day goes before I speculate on anything other than exiting UGAZ at a gain. I am still holding 89% of my funds in UNG. My only plan with that position is to continue to be patient. Good Luck

Oldinvestor