Morning Update Feb 4, 2020

To get it out of the way, weather forecasts are showing some cold coming in the next few days that is a guarantee. After the cold, a warming spell then forecast of tremendous cold as usual that will never show up….

Fundamentals appear to still be on the same path. Overproduce until enough wells die or companies start flopping. LNG is most certainly the closest thing to watch right now. Chinese demand and maybe logistics could be interrupted by “the virus”. China does need natgas to for heat; I’m just saying any surprises for LNG will be bearish.

NGH20 on 2hr chart at Tradingview.com

As for the chart, It would seem pricing is still in a range. I mentioned I’ve wanted to shift to trading more noise.

Everything is amplified with UGAZ, so trading noise can be more profitable when trading UGAZ vs UNG. That is, if the trades are placed at the right time. Something I’m not often good at. Selling my 1 share of UGAZ yesterday morning did turn out to be a good choice. I bought that share back at $42.8. It bothers me that I was not able to post either trade on Twitter, where I normally post each trade within minutes of the trade. I will be looking for an alternative to Twitter for posting my trades. This does not mean I will drop Twitter, I just need a way to post trades. I would like to find a plugin for WordPress that I can create special posts that will share to Twitter, email and even SMS if readers want the option.

Anway, on to my thoughts for today. I am holding 95% of funds in UNG still with an average of $15.58. I am also re-positioned in UGAZ with 5% of funds at $42.8. I plan to sell my UGAZ position between $45 and $46, or stop out back at my purchase price. If I am able to get $45 or better for UGAZ, I will also sell 4 shares (roughly 6.5% of my position) of UNG at a loss. By selling the 4 shares of UNG, this will allow me to buy 2 shares of UGAZ on any dip going forward.

I am not interested in reducing UNG beyond 80% holdings for a while still. I will only reduce UNG further if NG prices get closer to $1.75 or $2. There is plenty of time for this. Good Luck

Oldinvestor